Arthur Fery vs Aleksandar Kovacevic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Fery comes mainly from his recent record by level and his current form. Fery sits 37 in the rankings with a strong form index of 76.9 and an Elo of 1840. He has played 173 minutes so far in this event, which is meaningfully less than Kovacevic. Kovacevic is ranked 96, has a lower form index at 42.0 and an Elo of 1576.4, but he has shown match-winning rhythm at this event with three straight victories. The recent record by level moved the prediction 4.6 percentage points toward Fery, and recent form added another 2.5 points. Surface and match-play traits also matter. Fery posts a higher mean return index (90.16) versus Kovacevic (84.00), a gap greater than five points that suggests Fery will be more dangerous on returns on this medium-paced hard court. Serve indices are close, so neither player has a clear serving advantage on paper. Fatigue and workload favor Fery as well, with Kovacevic having accumulated 262 minutes in the tournament versus Fery's 173. Over the last three matches, Fery has two straight wins here after a loss to Alex de Minaur in Cincinnati, while Kovacevic arrives unbeaten in three matches at Winston-Salem, including wins in the round of 16 and earlier rounds.