Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Fils arrives as the slightly higher-ranked player (No. 30 to No. 33) with a stronger form index (74.6 vs 53.3) and a higher Elo (1811.1 vs 1666.3). He has logged more time on court this week (144 minutes) than Nakashima (102), a factor that can accumulate on slow clay where points and matches run longer. Fils also posts a marginally better surface strength index on clay (45.43 vs 40.36), suggesting a small comfort advantage on this surface. Nakashima’s standout numbers are on serve and return: his mean serve index (98.62) towers over Fils’s (74.78), a difference well above 5 points, and his mean return index (87.01) likewise exceeds Fils’s (64.27) by a wide margin. Those disparities indicate Nakashima can both generate free points on serve and be aggressive on return — unusual on clay — and are central to why he’s favored despite lower Elo and form. Recent form: Fils has two wins (Vacherot, Atmane) and a loss to Jiri Lehecka in his last three, including a 144-minute three-set win in Barcelona. Nakashima has two wins (Cerundolo, Damm) and one loss (Burruchaga), with a straight-sets victory over Cerundolo in Barcelona his most recent result.