Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Arthur Fils vs Pavel Kotov Prediction

Arthur Fils

Rank: #10
86%
VS

Pavel Kotov

Rank: #187
14%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

Why the Model Favors Arthur Fils

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +9.1 Arthur Fils
Overall strength +9.0 Arthur Fils
Recent record by level +8.7 Arthur Fils
Overall record & opposition quality +4.3 Arthur Fils
Serve & return game +3.7 Arthur Fils

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 86% for Arthur Fils. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Arthur Fils

  • Current #10 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #24 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #28 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #41 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #30 2025-09-29

Pavel Kotov

  • Current #187 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #249 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #299 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #480 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #485 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 48.9
ELO Rating: 1971.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1977.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 47.6
Clay: 40.9
Grass: 13.5
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 89.9

Pavel Kotov

Form Index: 49.7
ELO Rating: 1606.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1744.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 306.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.0
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 2.3
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 84.9

Recent Matches

Arthur Fils
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Pavel Kotov
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-0) hard Shanghai 93 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Shanghai 73 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Damm (2-1) hard Shanghai 140 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (0-2) hard Chengdu 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Castelnuovo (2-1) hard Chengdu 161 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Fils
vs
0
Pavel Kotov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Arthur Fils is strongly favored, at 86% to Pavel Kotov’s 14%, with an expected 24.9 games. The projection covers their Round of 64 meeting in Shanghai.

Match Analysis

The main separation is Fils’s stronger hard-court profile and overall level. Ranked 10th against Kotov’s 187th, he also has the advantage in both serving and returning, with the return edge giving him a way to pressure Kotov beyond simply holding his own service games. Kotov arrives on a three-match winning run in Shanghai, capped by a straight-sets win over Tallon Griekspoor. But he has spent 306 minutes on court in the tournament, while Fils has no recorded tournament fatigue. Fils’s recent Tokyo results were mixed, including a straight-sets win over Frances Tiafoe and a loss to Valentin Vacherot, but the broader level comparison favors him.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Fils - Pavel Kotov) +4.2 Most likely spread: +4 (Arthur Fils wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Fils is projected for 8.0 aces and 2.5 double faults, while Kotov is forecast for 5.7 aces and 2.2 double faults. Their serve profiles are relatively close, which fits the near-even double-fault estimates, though the forecast gives Fils more aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.4 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Arthur Fils 8.0 + Pavel Kotov 5.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Arthur Fils 2.5 + Pavel Kotov 2.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Arthur Fils

Expected 8.0 aces

Pavel Kotov

Expected 5.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Arthur Fils

Expected 2.5 double faults

Pavel Kotov

Expected 2.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Arthur Fils's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (61.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kotov’s serving is the specific route to making this closer: if it produces enough free points to limit Fils’s return pressure, the favorite’s advantage could shrink.

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