Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Arthur Rinderknech vs Laslo Djere: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #24
57%
VS

Laslo Djere

Rank: #279
43%
Expected Total Games: 27.1
Predicted Winner: Arthur Rinderknech

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Ranking Trends

Arthur Rinderknech

  • Current #24 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #30 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #29 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #77 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #72 2025-05-19

Laslo Djere

  • Current #279 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #114 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #99 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #72 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #59 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 41.0
ELO Rating: 1649.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1696.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 76.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.8
Clay: 19.2
Grass: 23.7
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 90.2

Laslo Djere

Form Index: 22.6
ELO Rating: 1539.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1572.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 119.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.5
Clay: 23.8
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Arthur Rinderknech
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Laslo Djere
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Rinderknech
vs
1
Laslo Djere
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Geneva, clay, round of 16 at a 250-level event sets up a classic contrast: big-serving Arthur Rinderknech against gritty Laslo Djere. The model favors Rinderknech to progress (57.50% vs 42.50%) with a predicted total of about 27.05 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Rinderknech arrives ranked 24 with a higher form index (41.03) and an Elo of 1649.14. He has spent 76 minutes on court so far in the week, a moderate fatigue load, and posts a surface strength index of 19.19. His mean serve index (96.999) and mean return index (90.184) underline a well-rounded game on serve and return. Djere sits at rank 279, with a lower form index (22.58) and an Elo of 1539.51. He carries heavier tournament fatigue (119 minutes) and a slightly higher surface strength index (23.83). His serve (95.344) and return (85.795) indices are strong, though overall form and accumulated minutes are notable concerns. Over the last three matches Rinderknech is 2-1: convincing wins over Thiago Tirante in Geneva (2-0, 76m) and Dusan Lajovic in Madrid, with a loss to Vit Kopriva in Madrid. That pattern suggests effectiveness on clay this spring with some inconsistency. Djere’s recent slate is mixed: a hard-fought Geneva win over James Duckworth (2-1, 119m) bookended by defeats in Buenos Aires and a long match against Stan Wawrinka, indicating toughness but significant recent court time.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.1 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Rinderknech - Laslo Djere) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction lands at about 11.99 for the match and the predicted double faults total is 4.79. On clay, the slower surface typically suppresses ace counts and can elevate the expected double faults due to longer rallies and physical strain; these expected figures reflect that dynamic. Although neither player holds a dramatically superior serve rating, Rinderknech’s marginally higher serve and return indices could nudge the predicted aces toward the upper end of this estimate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.0 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Arthur Rinderknech's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rinderknech’s superior form index, higher Elo and fresher legs give him the edge on clay. The key factor to watch is Djere’s accumulated fatigue from long matches — if it shows up in movement or serve consistency, Rinderknech is likely to capitalize.

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