Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Ben Shelton vs Ignacio Buse Prediction

Ben Shelton

Rank: #6
79%
VS

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #140
21%
Predicted Games Played: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current Rank: #6 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #13 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #14 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #21 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #13 (2024-08-26)

Ignacio Buse

  • Current Rank: #140 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #192 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #226 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #227 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #270 (2024-08-26)

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 56.7
ELO Rating: 1907.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1752.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.6
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 15.7
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 84.5

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 80.0
ELO Rating: 452.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1528.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.9
Clay: 3.4
Grass: 2.2
Serve Rating: 92.9
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Cincinnati 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-0) hard Cincinnati 81 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) hard Cincinnati 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Cincinnati 63 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) hard Toronto 78 min

Ignacio Buse
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Kimmer Coppejans (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Rei Sakamoto (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lukas Neumayer (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Cazaux (1-2) clay Kitzbuhel 135 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (0-2) clay Gstaad 82 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Ignacio Buse
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2025 US Open, Ben Shelton is set to face Ignacio Buse on hard courts in New York City. Shelton, currently ranked 6th, is favored to win with a probability of 78.81%, while Buse, ranked 140th, has a 21.19% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 36.0.

Match Analysis

Ben Shelton's strong ranking of 6 and a form index of 56.65 indicate that he is currently performing well, despite a recent loss to Alexander Zverev. His Elo rating of 1907.52 highlights his competitive edge, while his fatigue level is notably zero, suggesting he comes into this match fresh. Shelton's surface strength index of 15.60 suggests he is well-suited to hard courts, and he boasts an impressive mean serve index of 98.01, which is significantly stronger than Buse's mean serve index of 92.89, a difference of over 5 points. Additionally, Shelton’s mean return index of 84.51 also exceeds Buse's by more than 5 points, indicating a superior capability in both serving and returning. Ignacio Buse, while lower in rank and with a fatigue level of 522 minutes, has shown resilience in his recent performances at the US Open, winning his last three matches. His form index of 79.97 suggests that he is in good shape, but his relatively low Elo rating of 452.29 and surface strength index of 2.95 indicate he may struggle against a top competitor like Shelton.

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton's edge comes from his higher rank, superior serving and returning capabilities, and a fresh condition heading into the match. A key factor to monitor will be Shelton's ability to capitalize on his service games, which could set the tone for the match and dictate the overall pace of play.