Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Ben Shelton vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ben Shelton

Rank: #9
52%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #53
48%
Expected Total Games: 36.8
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Why the Model Favors Ben Shelton

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +4.0 Ben Shelton
Recent form +3.8 Ben Shelton
Recent record by level +3.2 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Serve & return game +2.2 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Age +2.2 Ben Shelton

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Ben Shelton. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current #9 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #5 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #8 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #9 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-08-25

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #53 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #79 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #43 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #34 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 70.9
ELO Rating: 1943.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1913.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.6
Clay: 27.7
Grass: 37.0
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 87.7

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 78.1
ELO Rating: 1859.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1764.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.5
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Stefanos Tsitsipas
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the 2026 US Open in New York, Round of 16 on hard courts, Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas collide in a high-stakes Grand Slam night session. The model gives Shelton the edge, 52.22% to win versus 47.78% for Tsitsipas, with an expected total of about 36.8 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Ben Shelton comes mainly from overall strength and recent form. Shelton is the higher-ranked player at 9, with a form index of 70.87 and an Elo of 1943.5. Age also nudges the projection toward Shelton. Tsitsipas counters with a stronger recent record by level and a modest advantage in serve and return metrics that push a few percentage points his way. Tsitsipas sits at rank 53, with a form index of 78.05 and an Elo of 1859.8. Looking at the numbers, both players show similar tournament fatigue, each with 522 minutes on court. Shelton posts a surface strength index of 50.57 versus Tsitsipas at 37.45, which supports Shelton on hard courts. Serve and return indices are close: Shelton mean serve 97.85 and return 87.68, Tsitsipas mean serve 95.89 and return 85.84. Neither gap exceeds five points, so neither player has a clearly dominant serve or return on paper. Both have been consistent here, each winning their last three hard court matches at the US Open in straight sets to 3-1, so momentum and match-toughness are comparable.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.8 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ben Shelton - Stefanos Tsitsipas) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 22.15 total, with predicted aces split roughly 11.93 for Shelton and 11.02 for Tsitsipas. The expected double faults total is 7.75, broken down as 3.62 for Shelton and 4.13 for Tsitsipas. On a medium-paced hard court, these predicted aces and expected double faults line up with a balanced serving duel that should produce a moderate number of free points. The per player ace projections quantify the serving output: Shelton 11.93 aces, Tsitsipas 11.02 aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 22.1 Most likely: 20 aces Per player: Ben Shelton 11.9 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 11.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.8 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Ben Shelton 3.6 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 4.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Ben Shelton

Expected 11.9 aces

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 11.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Ben Shelton

Expected 3.6 double faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 4.1 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

62.9% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ben Shelton's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (25.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shelton's advantage is driven primarily by the model key factor of overall strength, backed by a higher Elo and better surface index for hard courts. Watch the opening service games and return aggression as the decisive elements. If Tsitsipas can convert early break opportunities, the match swings; if Shelton controls his service games, he should hold the narrow edge.

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