Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Benjamin Bonzi

Rank: #98
12%
VS

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #3
88%
Expected Total Games: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

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Ranking Trends

Benjamin Bonzi

  • Current #98 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #104 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #95 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #51 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-05-26

Alexander Zverev

  • Current #3 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #4 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #3 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #3 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Benjamin Bonzi

Form Index: 37.1
ELO Rating: 1580.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1569.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.8
Clay: 12.0
Grass: 11.9
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 92.0

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 42.6
ELO Rating: 2048.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2051.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.5
Clay: 45.7
Grass: 38.7
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Benjamin Bonzi
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Dalibor Svrcina (0-2) clay Rome 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (1-2) clay Madrid 140 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (2-1) clay Madrid 152 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Diego Dedura (2-0) clay Madrid 50 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Darwin Blanch (2-0) clay Madrid 73 min

Alexander Zverev
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Benjamin Bonzi
vs
0
Alexander Zverev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris opens with a first-round clash on clay between home hopeful Benjamin Bonzi and world No. 3 Alexander Zverev. The model strongly favors Zverev (87.98%) over Bonzi (12.02%), with a projected total of about 37.95 games — pointing to a relatively brisk three-set affair rather than an extended battle.

Match Analysis

On paper the gap is stark. Zverev arrives as the clear favorite: world No. 3, an Elo of 2048.88 and a surface strength index of 45.69, versus Bonzi at No. 98, Elo 1580.49 and a surface index of just 12.01. Form indices are closer — Zverev 42.56 to Bonzi’s 37.10 — and both come into the match with no cumulative tournament fatigue recorded. That said, Bonzi’s mean return index (92.02) outclasses Zverev’s (86.08) by more than five points, which suggests he can be dangerous on return games, especially on a slower surface that rewards consistent, deep returns. Recent results underline the contrast. Bonzi has one win in his last three matches (a Madrid victory) but suffered back-to-back defeats in Rome, including a straight-set exit in his latest match. Zverev won two before a longer Rome defeat; his recent match lengths (73–144 minutes) show he can grind through different match scripts. Overall, Zverev’s superior ranking, Elo and clay comfort give him the edge, while Bonzi’s return game and home familiarity are his main weapons.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.0 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Benjamin Bonzi - Alexander Zverev) -4.5 Most likely spread: -5 (Alexander Zverev wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the match sits at 15.42 (predicted aces), while the expected double faults total is 5.81. Clay’s slower pace and higher bounce typically reduce ace counts and can elevate the chance of late-match errors, so the predicted aces are modest. Neither player has a markedly higher serve index, so the ace tally is likely shared rather than dominated by one man; the expected double faults figure reflects clay’s physical toll.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.4 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Benjamin Bonzi's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (60.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Zverev’s class, higher Elo and markedly better clay profile explain the strong forecast in his favor. The key factor to watch is Bonzi’s return effectiveness — if he can convert that strength into early breaks, the match could become tighter than the percentages suggest.

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