Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Botic van de Zandschulp vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #59
57%
VS

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Rank: #70
43%
Expected Total Games: 24.5
Predicted Winner: Botic van de Zandschulp

Why the Model Favors Botic van de Zandschulp

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +10.1 Botic van de Zandschulp
Age +4.2 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Overall strength +2.0 Botic van de Zandschulp
Recent form +1.8 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Surface fit +1.6 Botic van de Zandschulp

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 57% for Botic van de Zandschulp. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 43.0
ELO Rating: 1684.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1717.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.5
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 90.3

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Form Index: 45.5
ELO Rating: 1634.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1701.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 67.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.3
Clay: 18.4
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 89.7

Recent Matches

Botic van de Zandschulp

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Botic van de Zandschulp
vs
1
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This is a round of 32 match at Winston Salem in North Carolina, played on hard courts at a 250-level event. The model favors Botic van de Zandschulp to win, with a 56.78% probability versus 43.22% for Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. The projected total games for the match is 24.54.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Botic comes mainly from recent record by level, which added +10.1 percentage points to his win probability. That is supported by his higher ranking and Elo. Van de Zandschulp is ranked 59 with an Elo of 1684.33, a form index of 43.04, and a surface strength index of 28.46. He shows strong serve and return profiles in the metrics, with a mean serve index of 96.04 and a mean return index of 90.35. He is fresh in this event with zero minutes of fatigue logged. Age gave a modest tilt toward Vallejo, contributing +4.2 percentage points to his side, while Vallejo’s recent form added +1.8 points. Vallejo is ranked 70 with an Elo of 1634.22 and a slightly higher form index at 45.55. His surface strength index is lower at 19.29. He has logged 67 minutes on court in this tournament, which registers as a nontrivial fatigue factor. Overall strength and surface fit also nudged the model toward Botic by +2.0 and +1.6 points respectively. Recent results over the last three matches show mixed patterns. Van de Zandschulp won one of his last three, beating Aleksandr Shevchenko in straight sets but losing his other two matches at hard court events. Vallejo has two wins in his last three, including a win in the opening round here and a straight sets victory two matches ago.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.5 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Botic van de Zandschulp - Adolfo Daniel Vallejo) 0.0 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. Positive values indicate Botic van de Zandschulp winning more games, negative values indicate Adolfo Daniel Vallejo winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 10.17 total, with predicted aces of 5.88 for van de Zandschulp and 4.35 for Vallejo. The expected double faults total is 7.74, split as 4.33 for van de Zandschulp and 3.48 for Vallejo. On hard courts, which favor a balance of serve and return, these predicted aces and expected double faults are consistent with two competent servers and moderate rally lengths. Neither player shows a serve index gap greater than five points, so the per player ace split is modest rather than lopsided.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.2 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Botic van de Zandschulp 5.9 + Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 4.3
Expected Total Double Faults 7.7 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Botic van de Zandschulp 4.3 + Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 3.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Botic van de Zandschulp

Expected 5.9 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Botic van de Zandschulp serves in this match.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Expected 4.3 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Adolfo Daniel Vallejo serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Botic van de Zandschulp

Expected 4.3 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Botic van de Zandschulp serves in this match.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Expected 3.5 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Adolfo Daniel Vallejo serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Botic van de Zandschulp's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (32.3%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Botic van de Zandschulp's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Van de Zandschulp’s advantage is driven primarily by the model’s assessment of his recent record by level and his superior overall strength metrics. Watch the early service games for signs of fatigue or break opportunities, as those will likely decide a tight match projected to stay around 24 to 25 games.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel