Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Brandon Nakashima vs Botic van de Zandschulp: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #33
72%
VS

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #75
28%
Expected Total Games: 38.5
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Ranking Trends

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current Rank: #33 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #32 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #32 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #32 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #35 (2025-01-13)

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Current Rank: #75 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #82 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #103 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #88 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #84 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 57.1
ELO Rating: 1480.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1642.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.0
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 10.7
Serve Rating: 77.7
Return Rating: 24.8

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 38.8
ELO Rating: 760.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1570.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.2
Clay: 14.7
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 96.5

Recent Matches

Brandon Nakashima
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Brisbane 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-0) hard Brisbane 104 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (2-0) hard Brisbane 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Brisbane 76 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Brisbane 100 min

Botic van de Zandschulp
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Hong Kong 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Hong Kong 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-2) hard Paris 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-1) hard Paris 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-0) hard Basel 83 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Brandon Nakashima
vs
0
Botic van de Zandschulp
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match at the Australian Open features Brandon Nakashima facing off against Botic van de Zandschulp in the Round of 128. With the hard court surface favoring both players, Nakashima is predicted to emerge victorious with a win probability of 72.34%, while van de Zandschulp stands at 27.66%. The expected total number of games in the match is approximately 38.51.

Match Analysis

Brandon Nakashima enters the match ranked 33rd, with a form index of 57.11 and an Elo rating of 1480.11. His fatigue level is at zero, indicating he is fresh for the contest. Nakashima's surface strength index of 7.96 reflects his competence on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 77.68. In contrast, Botic van de Zandschulp, ranked 75th, has a form index of 38.80 and an Elo rating of 760.73. Although he also has a zero fatigue level, his surface strength index is notably higher at 23.19, indicating a better adaptation to hard courts. The difference in mean serve index favors Nakashima, but van de Zandschulp boasts a significantly higher mean return index of 96.49 compared to Nakashima's 24.82, suggesting he could challenge Nakashima’s serve effectively. In their recent performances, Nakashima has had a mixed run in Brisbane, losing to Daniil Medvedev but securing victories against Aleksandar Kovacevic and Raphael Collignon. On the other hand, van de Zandschulp has also had an inconsistent streak, losing to Alexander Bublik while managing a win against Jan-Lennard Struff but suffering a loss to Ethan Quinn previously. This uneven form could play a critical role in the match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.5 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 25.84 aces and 6.0 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which typically allows for a balance of both powerful serving and effective returning, these figures align with expectations. Nakashima's mean serve index suggests he might be responsible for a larger share of the aces prediction, while both players' serve capabilities should contribute to the overall count of expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 25.8 Most likely: 25 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Brandon Nakashima's edge lies primarily in his higher rank, recent match experience, and solid serve capability, despite van de Zandschulp's stronger returning statistics. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Nakashima can leverage his serve against van de Zandschulp's return game, as this will significantly influence the match's outcome.

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