Brandon Nakashima vs Elias Ymer: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Brandon Nakashima arrives ranked 29 with an Elo of 1284.6 and a form index of 36.64; he shows no accumulated fatigue in this event and a surface strength index of 7.47. Elias Ymer is ranked 190 with a much lower Elo (445.63) but a higher form index (61.20) and significant tournament fatigue (249 minutes on court). Nakashima's mean serve index (83.37) is notably lower than Ymer's (97.40), a difference of about 14 points, and there is a very large gap in mean return index (Nakashima 22.80 vs Ymer 91.13), a difference of roughly 68 points—both differences are material to match dynamics. Looking at recent results, Nakashima has mixed outcomes in his last three hard-court matches: a straight-sets win over Marin Cilic and losses to Taylor Fritz and Coleman Wong (most recently). Ymer has won his two opening matches in Acapulco, beating Nicolas Mejia in 89 minutes and surviving a 160-minute encounter with Mackenzie McDonald earlier in the week, while losing in Doha prior to this run. Those recent wins explain Ymer’s higher form index but also contribute to his accumulated fatigue.