Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Nakashima comes mainly from his recent results by level and a better surface fit, with fatigue also nudging the prediction his way. Nakashima is ranked 32 with a form index of 52.2 and an Elo of 1665; his surface strength on grass (22.0) is noticeably higher than Buse’s (8.6), which aligns with the model’s surface-fit advantage. He arrives fresher after 71 minutes on court in London, compared with Buse’s much heavier 154 minutes, and that workload differential is reflected in the fatigue factor that favors Nakashima. Buse is ranked 35, carries a slightly higher form index (55.3) and a stronger Elo (1729), and the explainability output does give a small nod to his serve & return game (0.6 points toward Buse). Both players post similar serve and return indexes (Nakashima: serve 96.6, return 89.2; Buse: serve 94.7, return 87.7), so there isn’t a large gap in raw serving numbers. Over the last three matches Nakashima has two wins and one loss, including a straight-sets win at this venue; Buse also has two wins and one loss, but his London victory came after a long, 154-minute contest that increases his cumulative fatigue.