Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Brandon Nakashima vs Mattia Bellucci: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #32
67%
VS

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #74
33%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Player Metrics

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 32.3
ELO Rating: 1354.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1638.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 10.7
Serve Rating: 81.5
Return Rating: 17.1

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 11.1
ELO Rating: 722.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1555.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 6.8
Grass: 7.5
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 92.4

Recent Matches

Brandon Nakashima

  • Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Brisbane 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-0) hard Brisbane 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Raphael Collignon (2-0) hard Brisbane 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Brisbane 76 min

Mattia Bellucci

  • Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (0-2) hard Auckland 67 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux (2-0) hard Auckland 89 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (1-2) hard Brisbane 143 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Paris 67 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Brandon Nakashima
vs
0
Mattia Bellucci
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Dallas, Texas at an ATP 500 hard-court event pits Brandon Nakashima against Mattia Bellucci. The model favors Brandon Nakashima to win (66.67% chance) over Mattia Bellucci (33.33%), with a predicted total of about 23.19 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Brandon Nakashima arrives ranked 32 with a form index of 32.28 and an Elo of 1354.12. He shows no tournament fatigue (0.0 minutes on court) and posts a surface strength index of 7.73. Nakashima’s mean serve index is 81.55 and his mean return index is 17.14. Mattia Bellucci, ranked 74, has a lower form index (11.07) and a much lower Elo (722.78), also with zero tournament fatigue and a surface strength index of 6.51. Bellucci’s mean serve index is significantly higher at 98.21 (difference >5 points), while his mean return index is far stronger at 92.39 compared with Nakashima’s 17.14 (difference >5 points). Those serve and return differentials suggest contrasting strengths: Bellucci’s serve and return metrics are standout in the data, while Nakashima’s profile is supported by higher ranking and Elo. Over the last three matches Nakashima is 1–2: a win over Aleksandar Kovacevic (straight sets in Brisbane) and losses to Daniil Medvedev and Botic van de Zandschulp, the latter a four-set Australian Open result with a long 174-minute contest. Bellucci is also 1–2 in his last three: a straight-sets win over Geoffrey Blancaneaux and losses to Hamad Medjedovic and Casper Ruud, including a 174-minute Australian Open match. Recent results show both players capable of a win but with struggles against higher-ranked opponents.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is moderate: the model’s predicted aces total is 6.72. The expected double faults total is 4.11. Hard courts are medium-paced with a consistent bounce, so predicted aces are balanced rather than extreme; the predicted aces reflect that. Given Bellucci’s substantially higher serve rating, he is likely to drive a larger share of the predicted aces, while Nakashima may contribute fewer service winners but also fewer outright errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Nakashima’s edge comes from higher rank, stronger Elo and recent exposure in deeper matches, while Bellucci’s serve and return indices present clear threats. Key factor to watch: Bellucci’s serve-to-return impact — if his serving dominance translates to free points, the match could be tighter than the probabilities suggest.

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