Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Emilio Nava vs Cameron Norrie: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Emilio Nava

Rank: #88
32%
VS

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #28
68%
Expected Total Games: 39.7
Predicted Winner: Cameron Norrie

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Player Metrics

Emilio Nava

Form Index: 68.4
ELO Rating: 697.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1534.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.3
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 4.0
Serve Rating: 75.5
Return Rating: 36.0

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 67.8
ELO Rating: 1405.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1616.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.2
Clay: 38.9
Grass: 37.4
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 94.5

Recent Matches

Emilio Nava

Cameron Norrie

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Emilio Nava
vs
0
Cameron Norrie
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Australian Open, Emilio Nava is set to face Cameron Norrie on the hard courts of Australia. With Norrie ranked 28th and holding a probability of victory at 67.53%, he is favored to win against the 88th-ranked Nava, who has a win probability of 32.47%. The match is expected to feature approximately 39.69 games, showcasing a competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Cameron Norrie enters the match with a significantly higher Elo rating of 1405.04 compared to Emilio Nava's 697.95, indicating a substantial disparity in their overall performance levels. Norrie's mean serve index of 97.74 clearly outstrips Nava's 75.47 by over 22 points, which positions him as a formidable server on this medium-paced hard surface. Additionally, Norrie's mean return index of 94.46 compared to Nava's 35.98 suggests that Norrie will likely capitalize on return opportunities more effectively. Both players have recorded the same cumulative fatigue of 174 minutes during the tournament, but Norrie's higher surface strength index of 37.17 enhances his potential for success on hard courts. In their recent performances, Norrie's last match ended in a victory against Benjamin Bonzi, although he had a tough five-set battle. Prior to that, he faced a setback against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard but secured a solid win over Hugo Gaston. Meanwhile, Nava's last match was a five-set thriller against Kyrian Jacquet, where he emerged victorious, but he previously lost to Sebastian Baez in the Auckland tournament. This inconsistency could be pivotal in shaping the outcome of their upcoming clash.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.7 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Emilio Nava versus Cameron Norrie. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Emilio Nava versus Cameron Norrie. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Emilio Nava - Cameron Norrie) +2.0 Most likely spread: +2 (Emilio Nava wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Emilio Nava versus Cameron Norrie. Positive values indicate Emilio Nava winning more games, negative values indicate Cameron Norrie winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Emilio Nava versus Cameron Norrie. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is projected to have around 15.92 expected aces, reflecting the capabilities of both players on hard courts. Given Norrie's substantial advantage in serve index, he is likely to contribute significantly to the ace count. The expected double faults stand at 5.94, indicating a moderate risk of service errors, which is common on fast surfaces. The balance of both players’ serving strengths will play a crucial role in determining the match dynamics.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Emilio Nava versus Cameron Norrie. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Emilio Nava versus Cameron Norrie. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Emilio Nava versus Cameron Norrie. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Emilio Nava versus Cameron Norrie. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Cameron Norrie is favored to win due to his superior rank, Elo rating, and serve capabilities, which could give him a decisive edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how well Norrie can leverage his serve against Nava’s weaker return game, which may ultimately dictate the match's outcome.

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