Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Emilio Nava vs Cameron Norrie: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Emilio Nava

Rank: #88
32%
VS

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #28
68%
Expected Total Games: 39.7
Predicted Winner: Cameron Norrie

Ranking Trends

Emilio Nava

  • Current Rank: #88 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #92 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #116 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #132 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #211 (2025-01-13)

Cameron Norrie

  • Current Rank: #28 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #35 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #41 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #91 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #52 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Emilio Nava

Form Index: 68.4
ELO Rating: 697.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1534.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.3
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 4.0
Serve Rating: 75.5
Return Rating: 36.0

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 67.8
ELO Rating: 1405.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1616.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.2
Clay: 38.9
Grass: 37.4
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 94.5

Recent Matches

Emilio Nava
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Kyrian Jacquet (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (1-2) hard Auckland 143 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Auckland 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Kypson (2-0) hard Auckland 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Laslo Djere (0-2) hard Hong Kong 125 min

Cameron Norrie
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (1-2) hard Auckland 122 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (2-0) hard Auckland 80 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (1-2) hard Brisbane 148 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Brisbane 155 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Emilio Nava
vs
0
Cameron Norrie
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Australian Open, Emilio Nava is set to face Cameron Norrie on the hard courts of Australia. With Norrie ranked 28th and holding a probability of victory at 67.53%, he is favored to win against the 88th-ranked Nava, who has a win probability of 32.47%. The match is expected to feature approximately 39.69 games, showcasing a competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Cameron Norrie enters the match with a significantly higher Elo rating of 1405.04 compared to Emilio Nava's 697.95, indicating a substantial disparity in their overall performance levels. Norrie's mean serve index of 97.74 clearly outstrips Nava's 75.47 by over 22 points, which positions him as a formidable server on this medium-paced hard surface. Additionally, Norrie's mean return index of 94.46 compared to Nava's 35.98 suggests that Norrie will likely capitalize on return opportunities more effectively. Both players have recorded the same cumulative fatigue of 174 minutes during the tournament, but Norrie's higher surface strength index of 37.17 enhances his potential for success on hard courts. In their recent performances, Norrie's last match ended in a victory against Benjamin Bonzi, although he had a tough five-set battle. Prior to that, he faced a setback against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard but secured a solid win over Hugo Gaston. Meanwhile, Nava's last match was a five-set thriller against Kyrian Jacquet, where he emerged victorious, but he previously lost to Sebastian Baez in the Auckland tournament. This inconsistency could be pivotal in shaping the outcome of their upcoming clash.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.7 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is projected to have around 15.92 expected aces, reflecting the capabilities of both players on hard courts. Given Norrie's substantial advantage in serve index, he is likely to contribute significantly to the ace count. The expected double faults stand at 5.94, indicating a moderate risk of service errors, which is common on fast surfaces. The balance of both players’ serving strengths will play a crucial role in determining the match dynamics.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cameron Norrie is favored to win due to his superior rank, Elo rating, and serve capabilities, which could give him a decisive edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how well Norrie can leverage his serve against Nava’s weaker return game, which may ultimately dictate the match's outcome.

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