Umag Croatia Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Francesco Passaro vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction

Francesco Passaro

Rank: #131
41%
VS

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #59
59%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Player Metrics

Francesco Passaro

Form Index: 50.5
ELO Rating: 687.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1561.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 117.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.0
Clay: 6.1
Grass: 4.1
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 87.3

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 46.3
ELO Rating: 777.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1564.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 89.0

Recent Matches

Francesco Passaro

  • Last Match: vs Matej Dodig (2-1) clay Umag 117 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jerome Kym (0-2) clay Gstaad 115 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) clay Gstaad 74 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Gonzalo Bueno (2-0) clay Gstaad 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Mika Brunold (2-0) clay Gstaad 80 min

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Last Match: vs Jesper de Jong (0-2) clay Bastad 112 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Filip Misolic (2-0) clay Bastad 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) clay Bastad 170 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Cristian Garin (2-0) clay Bastad 123 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francesco Passaro
vs
0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 match at the Umag tournament in Croatia will feature Francesco Passaro and Camilo Ugo Carabelli, competing on clay. With a predicted winner in Camilo Ugo Carabelli, he holds a 58.80% probability of victory compared to Passaro's 41.20%. The anticipated total number of games for this encounter is set at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Francesco Passaro, currently ranked 131, showcases a form index of 50.54 and an Elo rating of 687.15. His cumulative fatigue from the current tournament is notably high at 117 minutes, indicating a potentially drained player. His surface strength index stands at 6.06, slightly lower than Carabelli's, while his mean serve index of 96.37 is comparable to Carabelli's 95.09. However, Passaro's mean return index of 87.28 is outpaced by Carabelli's 89.01, suggesting Carabelli may have the edge in returning serve. In contrast, Camilo Ugo Carabelli, ranked 59, presents a stronger profile with a form index of 46.29 and a higher Elo rating of 777.90. Interestingly, Carabelli has shown no fatigue in this tournament, which could be a significant advantage. His surface strength index is slightly higher at 6.74, enhancing his performance potential on clay. Looking at recent matches, Passaro has won two out of his last three encounters, with a notable victory over Arthur Rinderknech. Meanwhile, Carabelli has also secured two wins in his last three matches, including a strong performance against Filip Misolic, despite a recent loss to Jesper de Jong.

Final Prediction

Camilo Ugo Carabelli's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and lack of fatigue give him a discernible edge in this matchup against Francesco Passaro. A key factor to observe during the match will be Carabelli's ability to capitalize on his stronger return game, potentially troubling Passaro's serve and dictating the flow of play.