Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Marton Fucsovics: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #48
50%
VS

Marton Fucsovics

Rank: #54
50%
Expected Total Games: 36.3
Predicted Winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli

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Ranking Trends

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #48 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #50 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #51 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #59 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #94 2025-01-13

Marton Fucsovics

  • Current #54 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #53 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #91 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #130 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #99 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 9.5
ELO Rating: 997.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.7
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 71.3
Return Rating: 74.8

Marton Fucsovics

Form Index: 31.1
ELO Rating: 925.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1560.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.8
Clay: 19.0
Grass: 19.8
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 95.3

Recent Matches

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Marton Fucsovics
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (0-2) hard Adelaide 100 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Adelaide 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Brisbane 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (0-2) hard Stockholm 108 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) hard Stockholm 66 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
vs
0
Marton Fucsovics
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Marton Fucsovics is set to unfold in the Round of 128 at the Australian Open, taking place on hard courts in Australia. With both players closely matched, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is predicted to edge out Fucsovics with a win probability of 50.26% compared to Fucsovics's 49.74%. The expected total number of games in this closely contested match is approximately 36.34.

Match Analysis

Camilo Ugo Carabelli, currently ranked 48, boasts a form index of 9.48 and an Elo rating of 997.92. His surface strength index of 5.66 indicates a moderate comfort level on hard courts, while his mean serve index stands at 71.27 and mean return index at 74.77. In contrast, Marton Fucsovics, ranked 54, displays a higher mean serve index of 97.05 and a strong return index of 95.31, coupled with a surface strength index of 22.80, suggesting he is well-equipped for hard surfaces. The significant difference of nearly 26 points in their mean serve index may give Fucsovics a notable advantage on serve. In their recent outings, both players have struggled to find form. Carabelli has lost all three of his last matches, including a tough defeat to Alexander Zverev, while Fucsovics has a mixed record, winning one of his last three matches, including a win against Ethan Quinn. The inconsistency in performance could play a critical role in their head-to-head encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.3 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Marton Fucsovics) +0.8 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total of aces in this match is 19.51, which reflects the capabilities of both players on hard courts, a surface that generally supports a balanced number of aces. The predicted double faults are estimated at 5.72, indicating that both players may face challenges when serving. Given Fucsovics's higher mean serve index, he may have an edge in achieving the aces prediction, but both players’ serve statistics suggest that double faults could also influence the match outcome.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.5 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Camilo Ugo Carabelli's slight edge in overall match probability, combined with his solid return game, positions him as the predicted winner against Fucsovics. However, the key factor to monitor will be Fucsovics's serve, especially given his significantly higher serve index, which could tilt the match in his favor if he can maintain consistency.

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