Marrakech Morocco Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Corentin Moutet vs Taha Baadi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #32
82%
VS

Taha Baadi

Rank: #1000
18%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Corentin Moutet

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Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #32 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #34 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #38 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #69 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #75 2025-03-31

Taha Baadi

  • Current #1000 None
  • 3 mo ago #1000 None
  • 6 mo ago #1000 None
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #703 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 47.3
ELO Rating: 1679.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1678.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.7
Clay: 41.8
Grass: 43.7
Serve Rating: 65.9
Return Rating: 69.6

Taha Baadi

Form Index: 50.2
ELO Rating: 1516.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1694.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 108.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.4
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 38.8
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 96.0

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Miami 71 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Miami 108 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (0-2) hard Indian Wells 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Acapulco 91 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (1-2) hard Delray Beach 150 min

Taha Baadi
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-1) clay Marrakech 108 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Govind Nanda (0-2) hard Los Cabos 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Yasutaka Uchiyama (2-0) hard Los Cabos 103 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Roberto Carballes Baena (0-2) clay Marrakech 121 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
0
Taha Baadi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the round of 16 in Marrakech on clay, Corentin Moutet is heavily favoured to progress in this 250-level event. The model projects Moutet to win with an 81.77% probability versus 18.23% for Taha Baadi, and expects a relatively short match of about 22.4 total games.

Match Analysis

Moutet arrives as the clear higher-ranked player (No. 32) with an Elo of 1679, while Baadi sits near the back of the rankings at 1000 and an Elo of 1516. Form indices are similar—Moutet 47.3 and Baadi 50.2—but surface strength slightly favours Moutet (41.8 vs 37.5). Crucially, Baadi posts much higher service and return indices (serve 97.3 vs Moutet 65.9; return 96.0 vs Moutet 69.6), a gap large enough to be highlighted and one that could cause problems if Baadi is moving freely. Fatigue is another clear divider: Moutet shows zero cumulative minutes on court in this event, while Baadi carries 108 minutes from earlier rounds, including a 108-minute win in the previous match. Over their last three matches Moutet has mixed results—two losses and one win, all on hard courts—whereas Baadi has two wins and a loss, with his most recent victory coming on this clay in Marrakech. Those match histories suggest Baadi has momentum here but may be worn down.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Corentin Moutet - Taha Baadi) +3.1 Most likely spread: +3 (Corentin Moutet wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 14.96 total, while the expected double faults sit at 5.13. On clay, slower pace and higher bounce tend to suppress aces, so the predicted aces reflect a surface that penalizes raw serving speed. Given Baadi’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to account for a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, but the surface will blunt that edge; expected double faults could increase for the more fatigued player as endurance becomes a factor.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.0 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.1 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Moutet’s superior ranking, higher Elo and fresher legs explain the projected edge despite Baadi’s eye-catching serve and return metrics. The key factor to watch is whether Baadi’s heavy-hitting serve carries him through early service games or whether fatigue and clay conditions neutralize that weapon, allowing Moutet to control baseline exchanges.

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