Marseille France Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #94
23%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #15
77%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Why the Model Favors Tommy Paul

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +7.9 Tommy Paul
Overall strength +6.9 Tommy Paul
Recent record by level +6.2 Tommy Paul
Overall record & opposition quality +5.3 Tommy Paul
Serve & return game +1.9 Tommy Paul

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 77% for Tommy Paul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #94 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #40 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #30 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #37 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #36 2025-10-20

Tommy Paul

  • Current #15 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #24 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #18 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #20 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 18.8
ELO Rating: 1526.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1599.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 288.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.5
Clay: 16.2
Grass: 12.4
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 90.6

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 59.2
ELO Rating: 1905.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1889.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 125.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.7
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 89.4

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Felix Balshaw (2-0) hard Marseille 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Marseille 201 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Dane Sweeny (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rafael Jodar (1-2) hard Toronto 137 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-0) hard Toronto 65 min

Tommy Paul
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
1
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tommy Paul is strongly favoured in the Marseille quarterfinals, at 77% to Corentin Moutet’s 23%. The expected total is 23.6 games.

Match Analysis

The main separation is Paul’s stronger hard-court record and greater overall level. Ranked 15th compared with Moutet at 94, Paul has a substantial advantage in the broader comparison, and the surface suits him better. Moutet has earned two wins in Marseille, including a 201-minute victory over Ugo Humbert, but that long match leaves him with considerably more court time in the tournament than Paul. Paul also beat Benjamin Bonzi in his latest match. Moutet’s stronger return could still help him pressure Paul’s service games and keep the contest close.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Corentin Moutet - Tommy Paul) -3.1 Most likely spread: -4 (Tommy Paul wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Paul is projected for 5.6 aces and 2.1 double faults, while Moutet is projected for 3.8 aces and 2.6 double faults. Their serve numbers are close, but Paul is expected to produce a few more aces, with hard courts offering less help to big serving than grass.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.3 Most likely: 7 aces Per player: Corentin Moutet 3.8 + Tommy Paul 5.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Corentin Moutet 2.6 + Tommy Paul 2.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Corentin Moutet

Expected 3.8 aces

Tommy Paul

Expected 5.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Corentin Moutet

Expected 2.6 double faults

Tommy Paul

Expected 2.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Corentin Moutet's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (50.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Moutet’s best chance to upset the forecast is to make his returning count and take control of rallies. If Paul holds up under that pressure, his stronger hard-court profile should tell.

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