Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Cristian Garin vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Cristian Garin

Rank: #104
37%
VS

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #72
63%
Expected Total Games: 26.6
Predicted Winner: Juan Manuel Cerundolo

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Ranking Trends

Cristian Garin

  • Current #104 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #92 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #104 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #121 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #153 2025-05-05

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Current #72 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #85 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #86 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #86 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #115 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Cristian Garin

Form Index: 52.1
ELO Rating: 1586.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1549.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 205.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.7
Clay: 17.4
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 93.9

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 40.4
ELO Rating: 1596.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1601.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.8
Clay: 22.6
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Cristian Garin
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Madrid 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) clay Madrid 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) clay Barcelona 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) clay Barcelona 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Giulio Zeppieri (2-0) clay Barcelona 69 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Cristian Garin
vs
0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000 in Italy, Round of 128 on clay, Juan Manuel Cerundolo is the projected winner against Cristian Garin. The model gives Cerundolo a 63.39% chance to prevail versus 36.61% for Garin, with an expected total of about 26.55 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper this is a close matchup. Cerundolo arrives with the higher ranking (No. 72) and a slightly superior Elo (1596.28) compared with Garin (rank 104, Elo 1586.26). Garin’s form index (52.10) is noticeably higher than Cerundolo’s (40.38), but Garin carries 205 minutes of fatigue from Rome’s earlier rounds while Cerundolo shows zero cumulative minutes in this event. Surface strength favors Cerundolo modestly (22.58 vs Garin’s 17.40), which matters on slow clay where movement and point construction count. Serve and return profiles are very similar: mean serve indices are nearly identical and neither player holds a serve-rating edge large enough to single-handedly dictate outcomes; Garin’s mean return index (93.87) is a touch higher than Cerundolo’s (89.60) but not by the 5-point threshold. Over their last three matches Garin has two wins in Rome (including a three-set 123-minute win over Jan Choinski) and one loss in Madrid, reflecting recent match toughness. Cerundolo’s recent results are mixed — a straight-sets win over Daniel Altmaier in Madrid sits between two straight-sets losses — and his shorter recent court time leaves him physically fresher for this encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.6 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Cristian Garin - Juan Manuel Cerundolo) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Juan Manuel Cerundolo wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 13.85 for the match while the expected double faults are 3.9. On clay, predicted aces typically dip because the slower, higher-bouncing surface reduces outright serve winners; this surface context also makes the expected double faults more meaningful as fatigue and longer rallies can increase pressure on serving. Since neither player posts a significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces should be fairly balanced between them.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.8 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

33.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Cristian Garin's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (37.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s edge comes from his higher ranking, slightly better Elo and the freshness advantage in Rome, combined with a marginally stronger clay profile. The key factor to watch is Garin’s fatigue and whether his high return numbers can break Cerundolo early in sets.

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