Bucharest Romania Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Damir Dzumhur vs Filip Cristian Jianu: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #74
65%
VS

Filip Cristian Jianu

Rank: #246
35%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Damir Dzumhur

Player Metrics

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 39.3
ELO Rating: 1546.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1490.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.3
Clay: 40.8
Grass: 39.6
Serve Rating: 71.3
Return Rating: 80.2

Filip Cristian Jianu

Form Index: 41.9
ELO Rating: 1519.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1519.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.7
Clay: 38.9
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 93.2
Return Rating: 91.5

Recent Matches

Damir Dzumhur

  • Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Miami 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ignacio Buse (2-1) hard Miami 156 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jacob Fearnley (0-2) hard Indian Wells 83 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Gael Monfils (0-2) hard Acapulco 112 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jaime Faria (0-2) clay Rio 123 min

Filip Cristian Jianu

  • Last Match: vs Clement Tabur (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Henri Squire (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jozef Kovalik (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Damir Dzumhur (1-2) clay Bucharest 152 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Nishesh Basavareddy (2-0) clay Bucharest 92 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Damir Dzumhur
vs
0
Filip Cristian Jianu
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Bucharest’s clay-court opener, round of 32 play pits Damir Dzumhur against local hope Filip Cristian Jianu at an ATP 250-level event in Romania. The model favours Dzumhur, projecting a 65.34% chance of victory to Jianu’s 34.66%, with an expected total of about 22.46 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Dzumhur arrives with the higher ranking (No. 74) and a superior Elo (1546.23) compared with Jianu (rank 246, Elo 1519.00). Both players show no accumulated fatigue from earlier rounds. Surface strength indices are close — Dzumhur 40.76, Jianu 38.94 — suggesting neither has a pronounced clay-specific advantage on paper. Dzumhur’s form index is 39.27 while Jianu sits marginally higher at 41.90, so recent momentum is effectively even. There are notable disparities in the underlying shot metrics: Jianu’s mean serve index (93.23) is substantially higher than Dzumhur’s (71.28), a difference above 5 points; his mean return index (91.49) also exceeds Dzumhur’s (80.24) by more than 5 points. Recent results show Dzumhur has a mixed run on hard courts — a win over Ignacio Buse sandwiched between losses to Jannik Sinner and Jacob Fearnley — whereas Jianu’s three most recent outings were all on clay at Roland Garros (two wins followed by a loss to Clement Tabur). Those results underline Jianu’s familiarity with the surface and his strong serve/return metrics despite the ranking gap.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 11.18 for the match with an expected double faults total of 6.43. On clay, predicted aces are typically suppressed and the expected double faults can tick up due to longer, more physical points; this aligns with the surface context. Jianu’s markedly higher serve rating should influence the aces prediction upward for him, while Dzumhur’s lower serve index suggests fewer outright service winners.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.2 Most likely: 11 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Dzumhur’s advantage is driven by his higher ranking and Elo which the model credits despite Jianu’s powerful serve/return metrics and recent clay matches. The key factor to watch will be whether Jianu can convert his superior serve/return indexes into quick points on clay or whether Dzumhur’s experience and match control will keep rallies on his terms.

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