Mallorca Spain Grass Atp 250 Round of 32

Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #105
41%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #64
59%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Vit Kopriva

Why the Model Favors Vit Kopriva

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +4.3 Vit Kopriva
Surface fit +2.8 Damir Dzumhur
Age +2.5 Vit Kopriva
Serve & return game +1.7 Damir Dzumhur
Overall strength +1.7 Vit Kopriva

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Vit Kopriva. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 36.2
ELO Rating: 1556.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1554.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 142.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.7
Clay: 12.9
Grass: 9.3
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 95.0

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 35.1
ELO Rating: 1650.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1693.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Damir Dzumhur

Vit Kopriva

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Damir Dzumhur
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mallorca, Spain — round of 32 on grass at an ATP 250 event sees Damir Dzumhur face Vit Kopriva. The projection favors Vit Kopriva to win (58.63%) over Damir Dzumhur (41.37%), with an expected total of about 24.6 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Kopriva is driven primarily by recent results at comparable levels and an age-related component that lean in his direction; those pushes outweigh smaller advantages held by Dzumhur for surface fit and serve/return. Kopriva’s higher elo (1650.4 vs 1556.2) and his ranking (64 vs 105) feed into the “overall strength” tilt toward him, while the model also registers Kopriva’s form in recent high-level matches as favorable. The age factor is one of the model’s contributors toward Kopriva as well. Looking at the raw profiles, Dzumhur brings strong grass credentials in the data: his surface strength index (9.32) is higher than Kopriva’s (5.59), and his mean return index (95.00) is significantly better than Kopriva’s (88.73) — a gap greater than five points that could make breaking serve more likely for Dzumhur. Serve ratings are nearly identical (95.53 vs 94.52), so neither player holds a clear serving edge. Fatigue is a contrasting element: Dzumhur arrives with 142 minutes on court at this event (two straight wins in Mallorca), while Kopriva shows zero minutes of tournament fatigue here, a freshness advantage. Over their last three matches, Dzumhur has two straight grass wins at Mallorca after a long five-set loss at Roland Garros; Kopriva’s recent slate includes a five-set win at Roland Garros, a five-set loss, and a competitive three-set match vs Zverev on grass.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Damir Dzumhur versus Vit Kopriva. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Damir Dzumhur versus Vit Kopriva. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Damir Dzumhur - Vit Kopriva) -0.3 Most likely spread: -1 (Vit Kopriva wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Damir Dzumhur versus Vit Kopriva. Positive values indicate Damir Dzumhur winning more games, negative values indicate Vit Kopriva winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Damir Dzumhur versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction is modestly elevated for grass: the match’s predicted aces total is 7.75 and expected double faults 5.53. Grass tends to lift ace counts by favoring flat, fast serving; here both players have similar serve indices, so no single player is expected to dominate the ace count overwhelmingly. The predicted aces and expected double faults reflect a fast surface but also two players who are not extreme outliers in serve power.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.8 Most likely: 7 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Damir Dzumhur versus Vit Kopriva. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Damir Dzumhur versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Damir Dzumhur versus Vit Kopriva. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Damir Dzumhur versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

29.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Damir Dzumhur's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (32.1%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Damir Dzumhur's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Kopriva’s projected edge comes chiefly from superior recent results at comparable levels (the top model key factor) and a higher overall rating, while Dzumhur’s return and better grass-specific index keep this very much in reach. Watch Dzumhur’s return efficiency and Kopriva’s freshness early on — those factors should decide whether this stays tight or tips in Kopriva’s favor.

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