Munich Germany Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Marin Cilic vs Daniel Altmaier: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Marin Cilic

Rank: #48
55%
VS

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #56
45%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Marin Cilic

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Ranking Trends

Marin Cilic

  • Current #48 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #70 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #92 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #65 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #111 2025-04-14

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current #56 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #44 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #51 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #61 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #68 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Marin Cilic

Form Index: 57.3
ELO Rating: 1689.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1754.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.3
Clay: 39.4
Grass: 43.7
Serve Rating: 72.8
Return Rating: 59.4

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 25.7
ELO Rating: 1478.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1415.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.3
Clay: 41.3
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 90.7

Recent Matches

Marin Cilic
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Daniel Altmaier
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 138 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (0-2) clay Bucharest 119 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Dino Prizmic (2-1) clay Bucharest 198 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Martinez (2-0) clay Bucharest 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Miami 67 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Marin Cilic
vs
0
Daniel Altmaier
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Munich’s clay-court 250 event, Round of 32, Marin Cilic is narrowly favoured over Daniel Altmaier in a matchup that pairs experience against heavy-hitting potential. The model projects Cilic to win with a 54.63% probability to Altmaier’s 45.37%, and expects a relatively short clay match of about 22.84 total games.

Match Analysis

Cilic arrives ranked 48 with a solid form index (57.28) and an Elo of 1688.97; he shows no tournament fatigue and has a clay surface strength index of 39.40. Altmaier is ranked 56 with a lower form index (25.70) and an Elo of 1478.21, also arriving fresh and carrying a slightly higher surface strength index of 41.30. Serve and return profiles diverge markedly: Altmaier’s mean serve index (97.87) is substantially higher than Cilic’s (72.75) by more than 25 points, and his mean return index (90.75) also exceeds Cilic’s (59.45) by more than 30 points — both gaps likely to shape the tactics. Recent results underline those numbers. Cilic’s last three matches include a straight-sets win over Alexander Shevchenko and competitive losses to top opponents (Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alexander Zverev), suggesting resilience on clay despite uneven outcomes. Altmaier’s form has been patchy: a lengthy win over Dino Prizmic in Bucharest is offset by back-to-back defeats to Fabian Marozsan and Tomas Machac, with longer recent match durations pointing to physical wear in a few outings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Marin Cilic - Daniel Altmaier) +5.5 Most likely spread: +6 (Marin Cilic wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay encounter sits at a predicted aces total of 12.38, while the double faults prediction is for expected double faults around 5.35. On slow clay, aces typically drop because the high bounce and reduced skid give returners time, though Altmaier’s much higher serve index may lift the ace count relative to an average clay match. Expect the expected double faults to be influenced by longer rallies and any late-match fatigue.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.4 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cilic’s slightly higher Elo, steadier recent form and cleaner tournament fatigue profile give him a narrow edge. Watch Altmaier’s serve and return extremes — if they click, he can overturn the probabilities.

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