Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Zhizhen Zhang vs Daniel Altmaier: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Zhizhen Zhang

Rank: #239
39%
VS

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #64
61%
Expected Total Games: 25.2
Predicted Winner: Daniel Altmaier

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Zhizhen Zhang

  • Current #239 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #367 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #405 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #165 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #55 2025-05-05

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current #64 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #44 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #46 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #60 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #71 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Zhizhen Zhang

Form Index: 27.6
ELO Rating: 1464.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1494.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 87.5

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 24.6
ELO Rating: 1470.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1441.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.3
Clay: 17.0
Grass: 11.2
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Zhizhen Zhang
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Daniel Altmaier
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (0-2) clay Madrid 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Molcan (0-2) clay Munich 103 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (2-0) clay Munich 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 138 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (0-2) clay Bucharest 119 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Zhizhen Zhang
vs
0
Daniel Altmaier
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, Italy — Round of 128 at the Masters 1000 on clay sets up Zhizhen Zhang vs Daniel Altmaier. The model favors Altmaier to advance (61.24% to Zhang’s 38.76%) with a projected total of about 25.24 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Zhang arrives ranked 239 with an Elo of 1464.07 and a form index of 27.59; his surface strength index on clay is modest at 7.60. Altmaier is the higher-ranked player at 64, carries a slightly higher Elo of 1470.20 and a form index of 24.61, and shows a better but still limited clay profile with a surface strength index of 17.04. Both have no tournament fatigue recorded (0 minutes on court), so freshness should not be a deciding factor. Their mean serve indices are very close (Zhang 96.67, Altmaier 95.35) and their mean return indices are nearly identical, so neither player holds a clear statistical serving or returning edge. Recent results favor Altmaier marginally: Zhang has dropped his last three matches on clay (Madrid, Munich, Houston) without a win; Altmaier’s recent slate includes two straight losses in Madrid and Munich followed by a win over Marin Cilic two starts ago in Munich. Those outcomes suggest that while neither player is in strong recent form, Altmaier’s higher ranking and the Cilic victory hint at a greater capacity to raise his level in early-round clay matches.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.2 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Zhizhen Zhang - Daniel Altmaier) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 15.22 total and the predicted aces split will likely be modest per server given the slow surface. The double faults prediction is low-to-moderate with expected double faults around 3.52 for the match. On clay, the slower ball and higher bounce generally reduce ace totals and can increase unforced serving errors later in rallies, so these predicted aces and expected double faults reflect typical clay-court dynamics.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.2 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.5 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Zhizhen Zhang's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (41.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Altmaier’s edge comes from the ranking gap, marginally higher Elo and a stronger clay surface index; those factors lift his projected win probability. A key factor to watch will be who secures the early breaks — on a slow clay court, taking and consolidating the first break should decide the match.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel