Brisbane Australia Hard Atp 250 Finals

Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #13
55%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #35
45%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current Rank: #13 (2025-12-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #18 (2025-09-29)
  • 6 Months Ago: #9 (2025-06-30)
  • 9 Months Ago: #11 (2025-04-07)
  • 12 Months Ago: #5 (2025-01-06)

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current Rank: #35 (2025-12-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #32 (2025-09-29)
  • 6 Months Ago: #34 (2025-06-30)
  • 9 Months Ago: #31 (2025-04-07)
  • 12 Months Ago: #37 (2025-01-06)

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 86.2
ELO Rating: 2710.1
Glicko2 Rating: 2005.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 363
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.4
Clay: 63.1
Grass: 65.9
Serve Rating: 34.9
Return Rating: 60.4

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 82.3
ELO Rating: 1480.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1643.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 362
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.7
Clay: 52.1
Grass: 52.7
Serve Rating: 70.9
Return Rating: 22.1

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Brisbane 102 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Kamil Majchrzak (2-1) hard Brisbane 132 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) hard Brisbane 60 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-0) hard Brisbane 69 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) hard Paris 150 min

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-0) hard Brisbane 104 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (2-0) hard Brisbane 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Brisbane 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Brisbane 100 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexandre Muller (0-2) hard Paris 91 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the finals of the Brisbane tournament held in Australia on a hard surface, Daniil Medvedev faces off against Brandon Nakashima. The prediction tilts slightly in favor of Medvedev, with a win probability of 54.77% compared to Nakashima's 45.23%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 24 games played.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev, currently ranked 13, boasts a form index of 86.24 and an Elo rating of 2710.10, indicating a solid performance level. His cumulative fatigue stands at 363 minutes, which is relatively manageable at this stage of the tournament. Medvedev has a surface strength index of 54.42, which reflects his effectiveness on hard courts. Notably, his mean serve index of 34.94 is significantly lower than Nakashima's 70.94, resulting in a difference of over 5 points. Additionally, Medvedev excels in return games with a mean return index of 60.44, contrasting sharply with Nakashima's 22.15, which also exceeds a 5-point disparity. Brandon Nakashima, ranked 35, has a form index of 82.29 and an Elo rating of 1480.19. His fatigue level is almost identical to Medvedev's at 362 minutes. Nakashima has shown strong recent performances, winning all of his last three matches convincingly without dropping a set. He defeated players such as Aleksandar Kovacevic, Raphael Collignon, and Quentin Halys, all in straight sets, demonstrating his current form and capability on hard surfaces.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev's edge lies in his superior return game, which could prove critical against Nakashima's less effective returns. The stark contrast in their return indices suggests that Medvedev may capitalize on any serve weaknesses displayed by Nakashima. Watching how Nakashima handles Medvedev's returning prowess will be a key factor in determining the match's outcome.