Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #12
62%
VS

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #52
38%
Expected Total Games: 36.9
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

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Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 2710.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2007.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.7
Clay: 20.8
Grass: 21.0
Serve Rating: 72.8
Return Rating: 54.3

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 86.6
ELO Rating: 1150.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1613.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.6
Clay: 29.2
Grass: 24.2
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 93.5

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev

  • Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jesper de Jong (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Brisbane 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Brisbane 102 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Kamil Majchrzak (2-1) hard Brisbane 132 min

Fabian Marozsan

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Fabian Marozsan
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Australian Open in 2026 is heating up as Daniil Medvedev, ranked 12th, faces off against Fabian Marozsan, ranked 52nd, in the Round of 32 on hard courts. With a 61.77% probability of winning, Medvedev is the favorite against Marozsan, who has a 38.23% chance. The match is expected to feature around 36.91 games, promising an engaging battle.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev enters this match with a form index of 100.0 and an Elo rating of 2710, indicating exceptional recent performance. His cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes suggests he has been active but remains competitive. Medvedev's surface strength index of 13.66 and a mean serve index of 72.79 highlight his capability to serve effectively on hard courts, though his return index of 54.30 indicates he is also adept at countering opponents' serves. In contrast, Fabian Marozsan shows promise with a form index of 86.58 and a significantly higher mean serve index of 98.00, which could serve him well. However, his Elo rating of 1150 and surface strength index of 34.59 indicate he may struggle to match Medvedev’s overall capabilities. Both players have shown strong performances in their last three matches. Medvedev has won all his encounters at the Australian Open so far, including a convincing 3-1 victory against Quentin Halys. Marozsan, on the other hand, has also triumphed in his last two matches at the tournament, maintaining a solid trajectory after a loss to Jakub Mensik in Auckland. Their recent form suggests that Medvedev's higher rank and consistent performance give him the upper hand.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.9 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Daniil Medvedev versus Fabian Marozsan. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Daniil Medvedev versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Fabian Marozsan) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Fabian Marozsan wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Daniil Medvedev versus Fabian Marozsan. Positive values indicate Daniil Medvedev winning more games, negative values indicate Fabian Marozsan winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Daniil Medvedev versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is projected to feature approximately 10.57 aces, with a predicted 4.47 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which balances both serving and returning abilities, the expected aces prediction reflects the capabilities of both players, particularly Marozsan, who has a significantly higher serve index. This could influence the overall ace count and dynamics of the match, possibly giving Marozsan an edge in this area.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Daniil Medvedev versus Fabian Marozsan. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Daniil Medvedev versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Daniil Medvedev versus Fabian Marozsan. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Daniil Medvedev versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev’s higher rank, impressive recent form, and overall performance metrics position him as the favorite to win against Marozsan. A key factor to watch in the match will be how effectively Medvedev can neutralize Marozsan's powerful serve, which could prove pivotal in determining the outcome of this contest.

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