Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Daniil Medvedev vs Reilly Opelka Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #14
65%
VS

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #74
35%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #14 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #10 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #5 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #5 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #5 2024-07-22

Reilly Opelka

  • Current #74 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #103 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #170 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #297 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #430 2024-07-22

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 37.8
ELO Rating: 3545.1
Glicko2 Rating: 2129.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.9
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 87.8

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 55.2
ELO Rating: 924.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1657.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 140.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.8
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 5.8
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 83.4

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Reilly Opelka
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Murphy Cassone (2-1) hard Washington 140 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Shevchenko (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) grass Eastbourne 86 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs George Loffhagen (2-1) grass Eastbourne 148 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
1
Reilly Opelka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 of the ATP 500 tournament in Washington, DC, Daniil Medvedev is set to face Reilly Opelka on hard court. Medvedev is predicted to win the match with a probability of 64.60%, while Opelka's chances stand at 35.40%. The predicted total number of games played is approximately 23.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev, currently ranked 14th, has a form index of 37.82 and an Elo rating of 3545.09. His fatigue level is at 0 minutes, indicating that he enters this match fresh. Medvedev's surface strength index of 33.92 is notably higher than Opelka's 7.83, showcasing his adaptability on hard courts. Furthermore, he possesses a mean serve index of 96.63, which is slightly lower than Opelka's impressive 97.09, but his mean return index of 87.75 significantly surpasses Opelka's 83.42, highlighting his advantage in returning serve. Reilly Opelka, ranked 74th, has shown mixed results in his recent performances. His form index of 55.20 reflects better recent play, but he has accumulated a fatigue level of 140 minutes from the current tournament. In his last three matches, Opelka has won two, including a recent victory against Murphy Cassone, but he also faced disappointing losses at Wimbledon. Medvedev, on the other hand, has struggled more recently, with only one win in his last three matches, but he is still more established on hard courts than Opelka.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev is favored to win due to his superior return game and fresh condition, despite his recent struggles. A key factor to observe will be how effectively Medvedev can counter Opelka's powerful serve, as he looks to leverage his return strength to gain an upper hand in the match.

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