Los Cabos Mexico Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Denis Shapovalov vs Adam Walton Prediction

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #30
53%
VS

Adam Walton

Rank: #90
47%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

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Ranking Trends

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #30 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #29 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #56 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #92 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #139 2024-07-15

Adam Walton

  • Current #90 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #86 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #90 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #102 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #95 2024-07-15

Player Metrics

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 45.6
ELO Rating: 1118.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1592.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 137.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.3
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 86.0

Adam Walton

Form Index: 49.8
ELO Rating: 661.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1562.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 291.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.4
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Denis Shapovalov
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-0) hard Los Cabos 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Govind Nanda (2-0) hard Los Cabos 60 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (1-2) grass Halle 153 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) grass Halle 148 min

Adam Walton
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (2-1) hard Los Cabos 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nishesh Basavareddy (2-0) hard Los Cabos 61 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez (2-0) hard Los Cabos 110 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Cazaux (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Holt (1-2) grass Mallorca 135 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Denis Shapovalov
vs
0
Adam Walton
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the semifinals of the Los Cabos tournament in Mexico, Denis Shapovalov faces off against Adam Walton on a hard court surface. The predicted winner is Denis Shapovalov, with a win probability of 53.33% compared to Adam Walton's 46.67%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 23 games played.

Match Analysis

Denis Shapovalov, currently ranked 30, has a form index of 45.57 and an Elo rating of 1118.47. His cumulative fatigue stands at 137 minutes, which is relatively low compared to Walton. Shapovalov's surface strength index of 14.27 suggests he performs well on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 97.11 significantly outmatches Walton's mean serve index of 95.73, providing him with an advantage in service games. In contrast, Adam Walton ranks 90, with a form index of 49.78 and a lower Elo rating of 661.76. Walton's fatigue is considerably higher at 291 minutes, which may impact his performance. Both players have shown promising recent performances. Shapovalov has won his last two matches convincingly, not dropping a set, including a 2-0 victory over Tristan Schoolkate in the quarterfinals. Walton has also performed well, winning his last three matches, although he faced a tougher challenge in his latest match against James Duckworth, where he dropped a set but managed to secure the victory.

Final Prediction

Denis Shapovalov holds a slight edge due to his superior ranking, lower fatigue, and stronger serve, which could be pivotal in close games. A key factor to watch during the match will be how effectively Walton can respond to Shapovalov's powerful serving and whether he can capitalize on any potential weaknesses in Shapovalov's game.

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