Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Shapovalov enters ranked 25 with a form index of 56.04 and an Elo of 1461.48; he has accumulated 135 minutes on court this week and posts a surface strength index of 10.37. Davidovich Fokina is higher ranked at 15, carrying a stronger form index (71.93) and a markedly superior Elo (2270.99), but with greater fatigue at 172 minutes and a surface strength index of 14.26. The difference in mean serve index is notable (Davidovich Fokina 97.12 vs Shapovalov 73.34), and his mean return index also substantially outpaces Shapovalov’s (90.10 vs 60.17), both gaps exceeding five points and favoring Davidovich Fokina on serve and return metrics. Over the last three matches both players have shown resilience on hard courts: Shapovalov won two straight rounds in Dallas (straight-set victories over Kovacevic and Jodar) after a long loss to Marin Cilic at the Australian Open, while Davidovich Fokina also claimed two straight Dallas wins (over Michelsen and Svajda) following a defeat to Tommy Paul at the Australian Open. Both have recent match-play rhythm on hard courts, though Davidovich Fokina’s higher form index and Elo point to steadier recent level.