Los Cabos
Mexico
Hard
Atp 250
Round of 16
Govind Nanda vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction
Govind Nanda
Rank: #378
17%
VS
Denis Shapovalov
Rank: #30
83%
Predicted Games Played:
21.0
Predicted Winner:
Denis Shapovalov
Ranking Trends
Govind Nanda
- Current Rank: #378 (2025-06-30)
- 3 Months Ago: #379 (2025-04-14)
- 6 Months Ago: #437 (2025-01-13)
- 9 Months Ago: #743 (2024-10-14)
- 12 Months Ago: #915 (2024-07-15)
Denis Shapovalov
- Current Rank: #30 (2025-06-30)
- 3 Months Ago: #29 (2025-04-14)
- 6 Months Ago: #56 (2025-01-13)
- 9 Months Ago: #92 (2024-10-14)
- 12 Months Ago: #139 (2024-07-15)
Player Metrics
Govind Nanda
Form Index:
50.0
ELO Rating:
152.4
Glicko2 Rating:
1833.4
Current Fatigue (minutes):
242.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
1.4
Clay:
0.9
Grass:
0.9
Serve Rating:
92.6
Return Rating:
87.2
Denis Shapovalov
Form Index:
24.3
ELO Rating:
1116.9
Glicko2 Rating:
1572.4
Current Fatigue (minutes):
0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
14.3
Clay:
7.6
Grass:
9.7
Serve Rating:
95.8
Return Rating:
86.0
Recent Matches
Govind Nanda
- Last Match: vs Colton Smith (2-0) hard Los Cabos 87 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Taha Baadi (2-0) hard Los Cabos 80 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Strong Kirchheimer (2-0) hard Los Cabos 75 min
- 4th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
- 5th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
Denis Shapovalov
- Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (1-2) grass Halle 153 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) grass Halle 148 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-2) grass Stuttgart 102 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Filip Misolic (2-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
0
Govind Nanda
vs
0
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0
Key Prediction Insights
The round of 16 match at the Los Cabos tournament in Mexico features Govind Nanda facing off against Denis Shapovalov on hard courts. With a substantial disparity in their rankings and recent performances, Shapovalov is predicted to win with an 82.62% chance, while Nanda's probability stands at 17.38%. The anticipated total number of games played is projected to be around 21.
Match Analysis
Denis Shapovalov, currently ranked 30th, holds a significant edge over Govind Nanda, who is ranked 378th. Shapovalov’s Elo rating of 1116.92 is indicative of his higher competitive level, while Nanda's rating sits at 152.40. Fatigue is also a noteworthy factor; Shapovalov enters this match with no cumulative fatigue, while Nanda has logged 242 minutes on court in this tournament. The surface strength index further favors Shapovalov at 14.27 compared to Nanda's 1.37, showcasing Shapovalov's superior adaptability to hard courts. The difference in their mean serve index, with Shapovalov at 95.82 and Nanda at 92.63, exceeds the 5-point mark, further solidifying Shapovalov's advantage.
In their recent performances, Shapovalov has struggled, losing two out of his last three matches, including a first-round exit at Wimbledon. However, he has shown resilience, previously winning against Ugo Humbert at the Halle tournament. In contrast, Nanda has been in strong form, winning all three of his matches at Los Cabos without dropping a set, indicating a momentum that could play a role.
Final Prediction
Shapovalov's higher ranking, superior statistics, and absence of fatigue position him as the favorite in this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be the effectiveness of Shapovalov's serve, as his ability to dominate in this area could dictate the pace and outcome of the match.