Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Remy Bertola vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

Remy Bertola

Rank: #236
31%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #52
69%
Expected Total Games: 26.4
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

Why the Model Favors Denis Shapovalov

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +6.0 Denis Shapovalov
Recent record by level +5.0 Denis Shapovalov
Recent form +3.9 Denis Shapovalov
Overall record & opposition quality +2.7 Denis Shapovalov
Serve & return game +2.1 Remy Bertola

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for Denis Shapovalov. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Remy Bertola

  • Current #236 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #179 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #212 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #254 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #243 2025-10-27

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #52 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #68 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #35 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #23 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #24 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Remy Bertola

Form Index: 47.1
ELO Rating: 1533.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1551.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 194.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 7.9
Grass: 9.4
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 89.2

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 40.6
ELO Rating: 1713.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1729.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.1
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 9.1
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 88.9

Recent Matches

Remy Bertola
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mika Brunold (2-0) hard Basel 123 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jakub Paul (2-0) hard Basel 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs David Goffin (1-2) hard Brussels 127 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Federico Cina (1-2) hard Brussels 152 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-1) hard Brussels 123 min

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Remy Bertola
vs
0
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Shapovalov is favored, with a 69% win probability against Bertola’s 31%, and the match is projected to last 26.4 games. The Round of 32 meeting in Basel gives Bertola a chance to build on two recent wins at the event.

Match Analysis

Shapovalov has the stronger overall level and hard-court profile. His recent hard-court wins over Sho Shimabukuro and Alejandro Tabilo reinforce that advantage, despite a loss to Carlos Alcaraz in his latest match. He is also ranked 52nd, compared with Bertola at 236th. Bertola has won two straight in Basel, beating Jakub Paul and Mika Brunold in straight sets. His return is marginally stronger and the players’ serving levels are close, giving him a useful counterweight to Shapovalov’s broader advantages. Bertola has spent 194 minutes on court in the tournament, while Shapovalov has yet to play here.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.4 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Remy Bertola - Denis Shapovalov) -1.6 Most likely spread: -2 (Denis Shapovalov wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Shapovalov is projected to hit 6.6 aces and Bertola 5.2, a modest difference that fits their closely matched serve profiles. The projected double-fault totals are 4.5 for Shapovalov and 3.6 for Bertola, with the hard court offering a consistent bounce for both.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.6 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Remy Bertola 5.2 + Denis Shapovalov 6.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.0 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Remy Bertola 3.6 + Denis Shapovalov 4.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Remy Bertola

Expected 5.2 aces

Denis Shapovalov

Expected 6.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Remy Bertola

Expected 3.6 double faults

Denis Shapovalov

Expected 4.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

33.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Remy Bertola's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (40.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bertola’s slight return advantage is his most credible upset lever. If he can turn it into sustained pressure on Shapovalov’s service games, the forecast could tighten.

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