Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Denis Shapovalov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #33
50%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #36
50%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #33 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #59 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #59 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #53 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #45 2025-03-03

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #36 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #23 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #29 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #31 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 65.7
ELO Rating: 1006.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1651.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 8.5
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 78.7
Return Rating: 56.4

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 48.4
ELO Rating: 1487.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1607.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 106.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.3
Clay: 10.8
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Denis Shapovalov
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
0
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells (hard, Masters 1000) in the round of 64, this projects to be a razor-close encounter between Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Denis Shapovalov. The model gives Shapovalov the narrow edge — 50.06% to Etcheverry’s 49.94% — with a predicted total of about 24.03 games, indicating a likely straight‑sets match with relatively few service breaks.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry arrives ranked 33 with a stronger recent form index (65.74) and clean fatigue slate (0 minutes on court at this event). His Elo sits at 1006.40 and his surface strength index on hard is modest (6.87). He’s coming off three wins in Rio on clay, including two long matches (184 and 237 minutes), showing durability and winning momentum even if those matches were on a different surface. Shapovalov is ranked 36 but posts a much higher Elo (1487.08) and a lower form index (48.36); he carries 106 minutes of court time at this tournament. His surface strength index on hard is higher (12.31). The mean serve index gap is pronounced: Shapovalov’s 97.58 versus Etcheverry’s 78.66 (a ~19‑point gap), and his mean return index is substantially higher as well (90.61 vs 56.44, ~34‑point gap). Those differences suggest Shapovalov’s serve and return numbers can be a decisive factor on hard courts. Recent results show Etcheverry’s three straight wins in Rio, while Shapovalov beat Stefanos Tsitsipas here in Indian Wells but had two earlier losses (Dubai, Dallas), so momentum is mixed.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.0 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Denis Shapovalov) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at a predicted aces total of about 13.22 and a double faults prediction near 4.4. On medium‑paced hard courts you’d expect a moderate ace tally — not as many as on grass but more than on clay — and Shapovalov’s significantly higher serve rating points to him contributing a large share of the predicted aces. Given those serve numbers, the expected double faults remain modest and should not overwhelmingly swing the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shapovalov’s edge comes from markedly superior serve and return indices and a much higher Elo, even if ranking and recent form tilt slightly toward Etcheverry. The key factor to watch will be Shapovalov’s serve-and-return efficiency: if he holds serve comfortably and converts a break opportunity, the predicted close outcome will likely go his way.

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