Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Valentin Royer vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

Valentin Royer

Rank: #69
41%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #23
59%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

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Ranking Trends

Valentin Royer

  • Current #69 2025-10-20
  • 3 mo ago #113 2025-07-21
  • 6 mo ago #118 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #209 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #183 2024-10-21

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #23 2025-10-20
  • 3 mo ago #28 2025-07-21
  • 6 mo ago #30 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #56 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #95 2024-10-21

Player Metrics

Valentin Royer

Form Index: 36.3
ELO Rating: 757.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1577.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 191.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.0
Clay: 2.8
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 88.2

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 54.9
ELO Rating: 1070.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1607.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 135.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.6
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 86.2

Recent Matches

Valentin Royer
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (2-0) hard Basel 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (0-2) hard Basel 99 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (1-2) hard Brussels 127 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Brussels 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly (0-2) hard Brussels 128 min

Denis Shapovalov
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Basel 135 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-2) hard Stockholm 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Elias Ymer (2-1) hard Stockholm 156 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Leo Borg (2-1) hard Stockholm 128 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Shanghai 93 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Valentin Royer
vs
1
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Basel tournament in Switzerland, Valentin Royer will face Denis Shapovalov on hard court. Shapovalov is favored to win with a probability of 58.78%, while Royer has a 41.22% chance of success. The predicted total number of games played is set at 23.

Match Analysis

Valentin Royer, currently ranked 69, has a form index of 36.34 and an Elo rating of 757.15. His fatigue level stands at 191 minutes from the current tournament, indicating he may be feeling the effects of prior matches. Royer’s surface strength index is 5.97, and he boasts a mean serve index of 97.27, while his mean return index is 88.20. In contrast, Denis Shapovalov, ranked 23, has a higher form index of 54.87 and an Elo rating of 1070.32. He has accumulated 135 minutes of fatigue during the tournament but comes in with a stronger surface strength index of 12.59. Notably, Shapovalov's mean serve index is slightly lower at 95.48, but his mean return index of 86.22 puts him in a competitive position. Looking at their recent performances, Royer won his last match against Raphael Collignon in straight sets but struggled in his prior two matches, losing to Kamil Majchrzak and Benjamin Bonzi. Shapovalov, meanwhile, has shown mixed results; he won against Marcos Giron in a three-set match but faced a setback against Casper Ruud. His victory over Elias Ymer indicates a capacity to perform under pressure.

Final Prediction

Denis Shapovalov's superior ranking, higher Elo rating, and recent match experience give him a distinct advantage heading into this encounter. A critical aspect to monitor will be the effectiveness of Shapovalov’s return game, as his ability to capitalize on Royer's serve will likely dictate the match's outcome.

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