Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Emilio Nava

Rank: #116
37%
VS

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #17
63%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Valentin Vacherot

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Emilio Nava

  • Current #116 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #89 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #92 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #116 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #132 2025-04-21

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current #17 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #31 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #39 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #258 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #223 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Emilio Nava

Form Index: 60.2
ELO Rating: 1606.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1623.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 98.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.4
Clay: 40.7
Grass: 40.3
Serve Rating: 75.4
Return Rating: 55.0

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 65.7
ELO Rating: 1820.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1788.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 60.3
Clay: 45.5
Grass: 42.6
Serve Rating: 98.4
Return Rating: 89.1

Recent Matches

Emilio Nava
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) clay Madrid 98 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-2) clay Munich 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Molcan (0-2) clay Munich 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (2-0) clay Munich 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 182 min

Valentin Vacherot
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 84 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 144 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 173 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 144 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Emilio Nava
vs
0
Valentin Vacherot
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid, Spain — Round of 64 on clay at a Masters 1000 event pitches Emilio Nava against Valentin Vacherot. The model backs Vacherot 63.15% to win versus Nava at 36.85%, with a predicted total of about 23.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Valentin Vacherot arrives with the clear ranking and Elo edge (No. 17 and 1820.6 Elo) over Emilio Nava (No. 116, 1606.1 Elo). Form indices are fairly close (Vacherot 65.7, Nava 60.2), but the service and return metrics tilt decisively toward Vacherot: his mean serve index (98.4) dwarfs Nava’s (75.4) by roughly 23 points, and his mean return index (89.1) tops Nava’s (55.0) by about 34 points. That dual advantage on serve and return is a major differentiator on paper. Surface strength indices are similar (Vacherot 45.5, Nava 40.7), so neither player holds a pronounced clay-specialist edge. Recent form underscores the contrast. Nava has split his last three, with a straight-sets win over Jenson Brooksby in Madrid (98 minutes) after two losses in Munich to Ben Shelton and Alex Molcan. Vacherot comes off deeper runs in Monte Carlo, beating Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz before falling to Carlos Alcaraz; his recent match durations (144 and 173 minutes) show he’s been tested on clay but has collected two quality wins.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Emilio Nava - Valentin Vacherot) -1.1 Most likely spread: -2 (Valentin Vacherot wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at about 14.9 total aces, while the expected double faults are roughly 4.1. On slow, high-bounce clay, predicted aces typically run lower than on faster surfaces, and the expected double faults reflect clay’s longer rallies and physical toll. Given Vacherot’s far superior serve rating, he is likely to account for a sizable share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.9 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Vacherot’s higher ranking, stronger Elo and the pronounced serve/return advantages give him the edge in this matchup. Watch his service games and early breaks — those will likely determine whether the match sticks close to the projected ~24 games.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel