Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Ethan Quinn vs Hubert Hurkacz: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #56
42%
VS

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #75
58%
Expected Total Games: 24.5
Predicted Winner: Hubert Hurkacz

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Ranking Trends

Ethan Quinn

  • Current #56 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #70 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #81 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #95 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #135 2025-03-17

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #75 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #73 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #71 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #29 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 27.1
ELO Rating: 808.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1531.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 60.7
Return Rating: 39.4

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 12.0
ELO Rating: 743.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1729.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.6
Clay: 8.6
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Ethan Quinn
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Indian Wells 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Rafael Jodar (0-2) hard Delray Beach 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (0-2) hard Dallas 97 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Trevor Svajda (2-0) hard Dallas 106 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Hubert Hurkacz
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Ethan Quinn
vs
0
Hubert Hurkacz
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Miami (Florida) in the Masters 1000 opening round on hard courts, Hubert Hurkacz is narrowly favored to beat Ethan Quinn. The model projects Hurkacz to win with 58.22% probability versus Quinn at 41.78%, and the match is expected to produce about 24.5 total games.

Match Analysis

Quinn arrives ranked 56 with an Elo of 808.8 and a form index of 27.05; his surface strength on hard courts is modest (5.42) and fatigue is negligible. Hurkacz, ranked 75 with an Elo of 743.25, posts a lower form index (11.98) but shows higher surface strength (8.56) and zero minutes of tournament fatigue. The difference in mean serve index is large — Quinn at 60.67 versus Hurkacz at 98.34 — and the gap in mean return index is similarly pronounced (39.41 vs 86.08), both differences likely to shape short, serve-dominated games. Recent results underline a slump for both players: Quinn has three straight losses on hard courts (to Reilly Opelka, Rafael Jodar and Marin Cilic) with match times around 78–101 minutes, while Hurkacz has also lost his last three outings (to Aleksandar Kovacevic, Jakub Mensik and Alexander Bublik), including a longer 142-minute match in Rotterdam. Those results point to struggling form, but the statistical edge in serving and returning sits with Hurkacz, which helps explain the model’s lean.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.5 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ethan Quinn - Hubert Hurkacz) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this meeting is 10.28 total, and the predicted aces are likely to skew toward Hurkacz given his very high mean serve index. The double faults prediction sits at 3.75 total, so expected double faults should remain moderate. On Miami’s hard courts — a medium-paced surface with a consistent bounce — these numbers reflect a balanced serving environment compared with grass or clay.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hurkacz’s dominant serve and superior return metrics give him the decisive edge despite Quinn’s higher rank and Elo. Watch Hurkacz’s serve efficiency early: if he racks up free points and holds comfortably, the match should be short and tilt in his favor.

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