Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Fabian Marozsan vs Arthur Rinderknech: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #53
59%
VS

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #27
41%
Expected Total Games: 39.0
Predicted Winner: Fabian Marozsan

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Player Metrics

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 49.9
ELO Rating: 1036.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 75.3
Return Rating: 55.6

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 34.1
ELO Rating: 1527.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1592.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.9
Clay: 24.4
Grass: 33.0
Serve Rating: 98.8
Return Rating: 92.8

Recent Matches

Fabian Marozsan

  • Last Match: vs Jakub Mensik (1-2) hard Auckland 127 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Eliot Spizzirri (2-1) hard Auckland 104 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (2-0) hard Auckland 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Gael Monfils (2-1) hard Auckland 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (0-2) hard Hong Kong 74 min

Arthur Rinderknech

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Fabian Marozsan
vs
1
Arthur Rinderknech
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Fabian Marozsan and Arthur Rinderknech at the Australian Open marks a significant encounter in the Round of 128 on hard courts. Marozsan is predicted to secure victory with a win probability of 58.60%, while Rinderknech holds a 41.40% chance. The anticipated total number of games in this match is approximately 39.02.

Match Analysis

Fabian Marozsan, ranked 53, has a form index of 49.87 and an Elo rating of 1036.42, indicating a solid yet fluctuating performance. His surface strength index is 7.45, reflecting a moderate capability on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 75.26 and mean return index of 55.59 suggest he possesses a balanced game. In contrast, Arthur Rinderknech, ranked 27, boasts a higher Elo rating of 1527. His form index, however, is considerably lower at 34.07, signaling a recent dip in performance. Rinderknech's serve index of 98.82 and return index of 92.79 demonstrate a pronounced advantage in serving and returning, with a significant 23.56-point difference in their serve indices and a 37.20-point gap in their return indices. In their recent performances, Marozsan has won two out of his last three matches, including a notable victory against Casper Ruud. Conversely, Rinderknech has struggled, losing both of his last two matches, including a recent encounter against Marozsan. This recent head-to-head matchup may add psychological pressure on Rinderknech as they face off again.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.0 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Fabian Marozsan versus Arthur Rinderknech. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Fabian Marozsan versus Arthur Rinderknech. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Fabian Marozsan - Arthur Rinderknech) +0.0 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Fabian Marozsan versus Arthur Rinderknech. Positive values indicate Fabian Marozsan winning more games, negative values indicate Arthur Rinderknech winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Fabian Marozsan versus Arthur Rinderknech. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces for this match are around 12.98, reflecting the capabilities of both players on hard courts, where aces prediction generally trends higher due to a more favorable surface for powerful serves. However, with Marozsan's serve index being notably lower than Rinderknech's, he may struggle to match the ace count. The expected double faults prediction stands at 5.16, indicating potential inconsistencies in service games from either player, which is not uncommon on hard surfaces where both power and precision are tested.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Fabian Marozsan versus Arthur Rinderknech. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Fabian Marozsan versus Arthur Rinderknech. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Fabian Marozsan versus Arthur Rinderknech. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Fabian Marozsan versus Arthur Rinderknech. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Fabian Marozsan's recent form and ability to secure wins against strong opponents provide him with a crucial edge heading into this match. Key factors to watch will be Rinderknech's serve effectiveness and whether Marozsan can capitalize on any service errors to dictate the pace of the game.

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