Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Fabian Marozsan vs Ethan Quinn: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #50
51%
VS

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #48
49%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Fabian Marozsan

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Ranking Trends

Fabian Marozsan

  • Current #50 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #47 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #49 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #54 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #58 2025-04-21

Ethan Quinn

  • Current #48 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #80 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #71 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #86 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #119 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 43.5
ELO Rating: 1601.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1662.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.3
Clay: 42.1
Grass: 40.8
Serve Rating: 79.2
Return Rating: 64.9

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 49.3
ELO Rating: 1622.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1636.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.1
Clay: 42.1
Grass: 40.8
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Fabian Marozsan
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Ethan Quinn
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Fabian Marozsan
vs
0
Ethan Quinn
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid’s clay court kick-off in the round of 128 pits Fabian Marozsan against Ethan Quinn in a Masters 1000 setting that favors grinding rallies and heavy topspin. The model gives Marozsan the narrow edge — predicted winner Fabian Marozsan 50.70% vs Ethan Quinn 49.30% — with an expected total of about 23.26 games in the match.

Match Analysis

This is a tight matchup on paper. Marozsan sits at No. 50 with an Elo of 1601 and a form index of 43.5; Quinn is No. 48 with a slightly higher Elo (1622) and a stronger recent form index (49.3). Both arrive with zero tournament fatigue and nearly identical surface strength indices around 42, suggesting neither has a pronounced clay advantage coming in. Where the profiles diverge is serving and returning: Quinn’s mean serve index (96.8) outstrips Marozsan’s (79.2) by a wide margin, and his mean return index (88.2) is also substantially higher than Marozsan’s (64.9). Those gaps point to Quinn as the bigger threat on serve and the more aggressive returner, which makes this close prediction notable. Recent form backs up the narrowness — Marozsan is 1–2 in his last three, highlighted by a deep 2–1 win over Stefanos Tsitsipas and losses to Shapovalov and Hurkacz; Quinn is 2–1 with wins over Reilly Opelka and Daniel Merida and a long three-set loss to Cameron Norrie.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Fabian Marozsan - Ethan Quinn) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Ethan Quinn wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 11.09 and the predicted double faults are 5.88. On clay, expected aces tend to be lower because the surface slows the ball and increases bounce, but Quinn’s markedly higher serve rating could lift the predicted aces toward that total. Likewise, expected double faults are influenced by longer points and physical demand on clay, which can push the double faults prediction upward late in matches.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.1 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Marozsan’s slight edge is marginal — the contest is projected to be a razor-close affair — but the model favors him by a sliver. The key factor to watch will be how Quinn’s superior serve and return metrics translate on clay: if they hold up, he can overturn the narrow projection.

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