Bucharest Romania Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsan: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Rank: #225
32%
VS

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #47
68%
Expected Total Games: 21.3
Predicted Winner: Fabian Marozsan

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Player Metrics

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Form Index: 55.9
ELO Rating: 1564.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1779.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 1456.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.0
Clay: 39.1
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 92.2
Return Rating: 76.3

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 38.3
ELO Rating: 1590.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1648.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.1
Clay: 42.4
Grass: 40.8
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Stefanos Sakellaridis

  • Last Match: vs Jan Choinski (2-0) clay Bucharest 85 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Dimitar Kuzmanov (2-0) clay Bucharest 1278 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Chun-Hsin Tseng (2-0) clay Bucharest 93 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Fabian Marozsan

  • Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (1-2) hard Miami 110 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Roberto Bautista Agut (1-2) hard Indian Wells 140 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-2) hard Dubai 113 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (0-2) hard Doha 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Doha 57 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Sakellaridis
vs
0
Fabian Marozsan
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clash in Bucharest on clay pits Stefanos Sakellaridis against Fabian Marozsan at an ATP 250 event in Romania. The model favors Fabian Marozsan (67.50%) over Stefanos Sakellaridis (32.50%) with an expected total of about 21.3 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Marozsan arrives with the clear ranking advantage (No. 47 vs No. 225) and a slightly higher Elo (1590.14 to 1564.88). His mean serve index (97.99) is roughly 5.8 points higher than Sakellaridis’s (92.20), and his mean return index (89.59) is markedly superior to Sakellaridis’s 76.34 — both differences are notable and will shape the dynamics on clay. Sakellaridis posts a stronger form index (55.87 vs 38.25) and has built momentum here, but his surface strength index (39.09) is comparable to Marozsan’s (42.39). Recent performances underline the contrast: Sakellaridis is unbeaten in three matches at Bucharest (wins over Jan Choinski, Dimitar Kuzmanov and Chun-Hsin Tseng) with recorded match durations of 85, 1,278 and 93 minutes respectively. Marozsan, by contrast, shows three recent losses on hard courts (Miami, Indian Wells, Dubai) and has no minutes logged in this tournament (fatigue 0.0), indicating freshness entering the tie. Sakellaridis’s cumulative fatigue of 1,456 minutes on court is conspicuous in the data and could influence late-match legs.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.3 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Stefanos Sakellaridis versus Fabian Marozsan. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Stefanos Sakellaridis versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stefanos Sakellaridis - Fabian Marozsan) +2.5 Most likely spread: +2 (Stefanos Sakellaridis wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Stefanos Sakellaridis versus Fabian Marozsan. Positive values indicate Stefanos Sakellaridis winning more games, negative values indicate Fabian Marozsan winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Stefanos Sakellaridis versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction here sits at a predicted aces total of about 16.5 for the match; clay’s slower bounce normally reduces ace frequency. The double faults prediction is modest but non-trivial — the expected double faults figure is 4.9 — and Sakellaridis’s heavy minutes could raise his risk of late-match errors. Marozsan’s higher serve index suggests he will contribute disproportionately to the ace count despite the clay surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Stefanos Sakellaridis versus Fabian Marozsan. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Stefanos Sakellaridis versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Stefanos Sakellaridis versus Fabian Marozsan. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Stefanos Sakellaridis versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Marozsan’s higher ranking, fresher legs and stronger return profile give him the edge on clay in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be whether Sakellaridis’s tournament fatigue blunts his early match intensity and return resilience.

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