Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Fabian Marozsan vs Timofey Skatov Prediction

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #64
69%
VS

Timofey Skatov

Rank: #201
31%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Fabian Marozsan

Why the Model Favors Fabian Marozsan

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +6.1 Fabian Marozsan
Serve & return game +5.7 Fabian Marozsan
Overall strength +4.7 Fabian Marozsan
Surface fit +2.9 Fabian Marozsan
Overall record & opposition quality +1.5 Fabian Marozsan

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for Fabian Marozsan. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Fabian Marozsan

  • Current #64 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #54 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #50 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #47 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #49 2025-10-20

Timofey Skatov

  • Current #201 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #163 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #198 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #183 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #241 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 30.3
ELO Rating: 1579.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1661.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.4
Clay: 17.5
Grass: 15.4
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 87.6

Timofey Skatov

Form Index: 42.5
ELO Rating: 1555.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1585.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.3
Clay: 13.0
Grass: 10.5
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Fabian Marozsan
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Zachary Svajda (0-2) hard Shanghai 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Kyrian Jacquet (0-2) hard Hangzhou 107 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Taro Daniel (2-1) hard Hangzhou 159 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Bolt (2-0) hard Hangzhou 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Zheng (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Timofey Skatov
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Bernard Tomic (0-2) hard Shanghai 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Sakellaridis (2-0) hard Shanghai 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Grigor Dimitrov (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrey Rublev (0-2) clay Estoril 59 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Fabian Marozsan
vs
0
Timofey Skatov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Fabian Marozsan is favored at 69% to Timofey Skatov’s 31%, a clear but not decisive advantage, with 24.4 total games expected. Skatov still has a meaningful chance to keep the match close.

Match Analysis

Marozsan is ranked 64th, well ahead of Skatov at 201, and is marginally stronger on both serve and return. Those advantages give him more ways to control points, while his better fit for hard courts adds another reason to favor him. Both players have won one of their last three matches, so those results alone do not separate them. The model’s comparison of their recent records by level also favors Marozsan, alongside his broader strength and surface suitability.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Fabian Marozsan - Timofey Skatov) +1.3 Most likely spread: +1 (Fabian Marozsan wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Marozsan is projected for 5.0 aces and 2.0 double faults, while Skatov is projected for 4.3 aces and 2.2 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, which fits the narrow gap in expected aces on a hard court with a consistent bounce.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.3 Most likely: 7 aces Per player: Fabian Marozsan 5.0 + Timofey Skatov 4.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Fabian Marozsan 2.0 + Timofey Skatov 2.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Fabian Marozsan

Expected 5.0 aces

Timofey Skatov

Expected 4.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Fabian Marozsan

Expected 2.0 double faults

Timofey Skatov

Expected 2.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Fabian Marozsan's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (38.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Skatov’s stronger current-form profile is his best chance to change the forecast. If it carries into this match, he could offset Marozsan’s advantages in ranking and hard-court suitability.

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