Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Rank: #150
34%
VS

Zhizhen Zhang

Rank: #226
66%
Expected Total Games: 40.0
Predicted Winner: Zhizhen Zhang

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Ranking Trends

Facundo Diaz Acosta

  • Current #150 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #278 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #221 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #256 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #201 2025-05-26

Zhizhen Zhang

  • Current #226 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #263 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #414 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #190 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #79 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Form Index: 39.0
ELO Rating: 1566.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1554.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.1
Clay: 13.4
Grass: 3.8
Serve Rating: 93.5
Return Rating: 93.1

Zhizhen Zhang

Form Index: 17.3
ELO Rating: 1420.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1418.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 5.6
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 82.7

Recent Matches

Facundo Diaz Acosta
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs August Holmgren (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Remy Bertola (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 110 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Dusan Lajovic (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tristan Schoolkate (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Zhizhen Zhang
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Facundo Diaz Acosta
vs
0
Zhizhen Zhang
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros Round of 128 in Paris on clay sees Facundo Diaz Acosta face Zhizhen Zhang in a matchup between two baseliners at a Grand Slam. The model predicts Zhizhen Zhang to advance (65.83% chance) while Facundo Diaz Acosta carries a 34.17% probability; the match is expected to run about 39.97 total games.

Match Analysis

Diaz Acosta arrives ranked 150 with an Elo of 1566.9 and a noticeably stronger form index (38.96) than Zhang (17.29). He has logged 348 minutes on court in this event, a clear fatigue factor compared with Zhang’s zero tournament minutes. Both players show limited clay-specific resumes by the supplied surface strength indices (Diaz Acosta 13.43, Zhang 5.62), suggesting neither is a clay specialist. Diaz Acosta’s return profile (mean return index 93.13) is substantially better than Zhang’s (82.69) — a gap worth noting on this slower surface where returns are rewarded. Recent match trends reinforce the contrast: Diaz Acosta has two straight wins at Roland Garros (a 2-1 and a 2-0) after a prior loss in Buenos Aires, while Zhang arrives off three consecutive defeats (losses in Hamburg, Rome and Madrid), all on clay and each going multiple sets. Those scorelines indicate Diaz Acosta has been able to close matches here despite long on-court time, whereas Zhang has struggled to convert opportunities in recent weeks.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.0 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Facundo Diaz Acosta - Zhizhen Zhang) -1.8 Most likely spread: -2 (Zhizhen Zhang wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash is modest: the predicted aces total is 16.11, and the predicted double faults total is 6.92. On clay, the expected aces are suppressed and expected double faults can creep up due to longer rallies and fatigue — a dynamic that favors the player who can keep first-serve percentages high. Zhang’s serve index is marginally higher, but the surface and Diaz Acosta’s superior return game temper any large spike in predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.1 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.9 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

53.4% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Facundo Diaz Acosta's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (28.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Zhang’s advantage in this projection largely comes from being fresh and avoiding the cumulative minutes that have taxed Diaz Acosta. The decisive factor to watch will be Diaz Acosta’s return efficiency and whether his accumulated fatigue blunts that weapon deep into rallies.

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