Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Federico Cina

Rank: #216
26%
VS

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #75
74%
Expected Total Games: 39.9
Predicted Winner: Reilly Opelka

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Player Metrics

Federico Cina

Form Index: 46.9
ELO Rating: 1576.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1525.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.2
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 92.2

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 34.5
ELO Rating: 1630.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1653.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.0
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 14.1
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 81.5

Recent Matches

Federico Cina

Reilly Opelka

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Federico Cina
vs
0
Reilly Opelka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — round of 128 on clay at a Grand Slam is a stern test of serve and endurance. The model favors Reilly Opelka to advance, with a 74.02% probability to win versus Federico Cina’s 25.98%, and an expected total of roughly 39.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Federico Cina (rank 216) arrives with an Elo of 1576.11, a strong form index of 46.91 and notable cumulative fatigue from this event (348 minutes on court). His surface strength index is low (12.52) but his return metrics are impressive: a mean return index of 92.17. Reilly Opelka (rank 75) carries a higher Elo (1630.23) despite a lower recent form index (34.54) and no fatigue logged at this tournament. Opelka’s surface strength is similarly modest (9.26) and his mean serve index is slightly higher (97.11) than Cina’s (94.70), though the serve gap is under the 5-point threshold. Recent form contrasts sharply. Cina has won two of his last three matches at clay events, including back-to-back wins at Roland Garros with long 174-minute matches, demonstrating match toughness on this surface. Opelka’s last three recorded matches show three straight losses, with shorter match durations and no wins in the listed events. These patterns suggest Cina is battle-tested this fortnight while Opelka brings superior baseline credentials on serve and a higher overall Elo.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.9 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Federico Cina versus Reilly Opelka. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Federico Cina versus Reilly Opelka. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Federico Cina - Reilly Opelka) -2.9 Most likely spread: -3 (Reilly Opelka wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Federico Cina versus Reilly Opelka. Positive values indicate Federico Cina winning more games, negative values indicate Reilly Opelka winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Federico Cina versus Reilly Opelka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 20.66 total; the predicted aces will be tempered by the clay surface, which usually reduces raw ace counts. The double faults prediction is 8.33 total, aligning with the expected double faults rise on clay as play extends and fatigue accumulates. Opelka’s marginally higher serve index should push a chunk of the predicted aces his way, but Cina’s elite return index will likely blunt some of that production.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 20.7 Most likely: 20 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 8.3 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Federico Cina versus Reilly Opelka. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Federico Cina versus Reilly Opelka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Federico Cina versus Reilly Opelka. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Federico Cina versus Reilly Opelka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

53.0% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Federico Cina's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (48.0%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Federico Cina's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Opelka’s edge comes from his higher Elo and serving profile, which the model values in a best-of-five Grand Slam setting despite clay. Watch Cina’s return game and how early breaks are converted — his ability to neutralize Opelka’s serve will be the key determinant of an upset.

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