Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Gabriel Diallo Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #12
61%
VS

Gabriel Diallo

Rank: #41
39%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #12 (2025-10-20)
  • 3 Months Ago: #27 (2025-07-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #19 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #23 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #19 (2024-10-21)

Gabriel Diallo

  • Current Rank: #41 (2025-10-20)
  • 3 Months Ago: #35 (2025-07-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #78 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #86 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #87 (2024-10-21)

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 67.5
ELO Rating: 1642.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1705.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.3
Clay: 13.0
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 85.5

Gabriel Diallo

Form Index: 42.8
ELO Rating: 1176.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1613.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.4
Clay: 8.0
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-1) hard Brussels 154 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (2-0) hard Brussels 105 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Eliot Spizzirri (2-0) hard Brussels 99 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-1) hard Brussels 173 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (0-2) hard Shanghai 88 min

Gabriel Diallo
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs James Duckworth (1-2) hard Almaty 150 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Amir Omarkhanov (2-0) hard Almaty 62 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Zizou Bergs (1-2) hard Shanghai 168 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (1-0) hard Shanghai 10 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-0) hard Shanghai 88 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
0
Gabriel Diallo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the 2025 Basel tournament, Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Gabriel Diallo on hard courts in Switzerland. With a predicted win probability of 61.45% for Auger-Aliassime compared to Diallo's 38.55%, the forecast suggests a competitive match, with a total of approximately 24 games expected to be played.

Match Analysis

Felix Auger-Aliassime enters the match ranked 12th globally, showcasing a solid form index of 67.47 and an Elo rating of 1642.67. His fatigue level is at 0, indicating he is fresh for this encounter. On the other hand, Gabriel Diallo, ranked 41st, has a lower form index of 42.85 and an Elo rating of 1176.21, reflecting a significant performance gap. The surface strength index also favors Auger-Aliassime (14.33) over Diallo (8.41), suggesting that Auger-Aliassime is more adept on hard courts. Additionally, Auger-Aliassime's mean serve index (97.39) exceeds Diallo's (95.98) by more than 5 points, providing him a further edge in serving capability, while the mean return index is quite similar, with Auger-Aliassime at 85.46 compared to Diallo's 86.06. Recent performances indicate a more dominant form for Auger-Aliassime, who has won all of his last three matches at the Brussels tournament, with a mix of straight-set victories and a competitive three-setter. In contrast, Diallo has had mixed results, winning only one of his last three matches, including a tough loss in his most recent outing at the Almaty tournament. This discrepancy in recent form may play a crucial role in the upcoming match.

Final Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime's higher ranking, stronger recent performances, and superior serving capability give him a distinct advantage over Gabriel Diallo. A key factor to watch will be Auger-Aliassime's ability to capitalize on his serve, which could dictate the pace and outcome of the match.