Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Hamad Medjedovic vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #80
31%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
69%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranking Trends

Hamad Medjedovic

  • Current Rank: #80 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #83 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #72 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #72 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #96 (2025-02-10)

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #8 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #8 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #28 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #27 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #22 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 43.0
ELO Rating: 751.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1562.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 353.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.4
Clay: 6.2
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 82.6
Return Rating: 48.5

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 66.3
ELO Rating: 4062.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1680.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 92.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.8
Clay: 31.9
Grass: 32.8
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Hamad Medjedovic
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Rotterdam 139 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Luka Pavlovic (1-2) hard Rotterdam 149 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (2-0) hard Rotterdam 65 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Stan Wawrinka (0-2) hard Montpellier 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Montpellier 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (2-1) hard Montpellier 147 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Montpellier 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) hard Montpellier 107 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hamad Medjedovic
vs
1
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 match in Rotterdam (hard, ATP 500-level event) pits No. 80 Hamad Medjedovic against No. 8 Felix Auger-Aliassime. The model favors Auger-Aliassime with a 68.97% chance to win versus 31.03% for Medjedovic, and projects about 23.95 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Auger-Aliassime arrives with clear statistical advantages: he is ranked 8 vs Medjedovic’s 80, has a substantially higher Elo (4062.00 vs 751.18) and a stronger form index (66.26 vs 43.04). Surface strength favors Auger-Aliassime as well (28.84 vs 6.41). There is a notable serving gap — Auger-Aliassime’s mean serve index is 98.46 compared to Medjedovic’s 82.59 (difference >5) — and a large return-gap too (87.72 vs 48.52, difference >5). Medjedovic’s higher cumulative fatigue (353 minutes on court) contrasts with Auger-Aliassime’s lighter tournament minutes (92), which may affect Medjedovic’s movement and serve consistency late in rallies. Looking at recent results, Medjedovic has shown streaky form this week with wins over Zizou Bergs and Nikoloz Basilashvili and a loss to Luka Pavlovic; match lengths (65–149 minutes) contributed to his tournament minutes. Auger-Aliassime has been steady, winning his last three matches including a straight-sets victory over Alexei Popyrin and two wins in Montpellier prior, generally in shorter matches. That consistency and lower fatigue profile supports the model’s edge to Auger-Aliassime.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at 10.57 total; the predicted aces skew toward Auger-Aliassime given his much higher serve index, which should lift the match ace count. Expected double faults are 4.47 in total; Medjedovic’s heavier recent court time could increase his error rate under pressure. Hard courts here provide a medium-paced, consistent bounce, so the aces prediction is moderate rather than extreme.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Auger-Aliassime’s superior serve, return metrics and lower fatigue give him the clear edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch is whether Medjedovic can remain physically sharp late in rallies and break Auger-Aliassime’s serve — that will determine how close the contest becomes.

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