Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jiri Lehecka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
55%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #24
45%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #8 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #5 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #27 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #27 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-02-24

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #24 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #17 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #34 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 63.0
ELO Rating: 3934.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1695.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 191.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.6
Clay: 30.0
Grass: 31.6
Serve Rating: 83.2
Return Rating: 31.5

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 60.2
ELO Rating: 1772.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1691.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 233.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 17.3
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 89.0

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
0
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal in Dubai (U.A.E.), played on hard court at an ATP 500-level event, projects to be a tight matchup. Felix Auger-Aliassime is the narrow favorite to win (54.68%) over Jiri Lehecka (45.32%), with a predicted total of 23.84 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Auger-Aliassime arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 8) with a stronger Elo (3934.18) and a form index of 63.01; his surface strength index on hard is 25.59. He has logged 191 minutes in the tournament so far. Lehecka is ranked 24, has a lower Elo (1772.64) and a form index of 60.17, with a surface strength index of 13.30 and greater cumulative minutes on court (233). Both players have shown solid recent results this week in Dubai. There is a notable gap in serve and return profiles: Lehecka’s mean serve index (98.34) exceeds Auger-Aliassime’s (83.25) by more than 15 points, and Lehecka’s mean return index (89.03) is substantially higher than Auger-Aliassime’s (31.47). Recent form is comparable — Auger-Aliassime has two straight wins in Dubai (over Zhizhen Zhang and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard) after a loss in Rotterdam to Alex de Minaur; Lehecka has also won his last two Dubai matches (Pablo Carreno Busta, Luca Nardi) following a loss to Arthur Fils in Doha. Match durations suggest Lehecka has had longer recent matches, reflected in his higher fatigue total.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Felix Auger-Aliassime - Jiri Lehecka) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Felix Auger-Aliassime wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 15.91 total aces and a double faults prediction of 5.94. On hard courts—medium-paced with a consistent bounce—these predicted aces are moderate, aligning with the surface profile. Given Lehecka’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces, while expected double faults remain modest for the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Auger-Aliassime’s higher rank, superior Elo and slightly better form give him the edge in a close contest. Watch the serve-return battle: Lehecka’s elite serve and return indices versus Auger-Aliassime’s overall consistency will be the decisive factor.

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