Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kubler: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #30
65%
VS

Jason Kubler

Rank: #192
35%
Expected Total Games: 39.4
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #30 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #29 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #11 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-01-13

Jason Kubler

  • Current #192 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #185 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #199 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #307 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #837 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 33.6
ELO Rating: 1485.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1756.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.9
Clay: 10.1
Grass: 11.4
Serve Rating: 57.1
Return Rating: 62.2

Jason Kubler

Form Index: 97.3
ELO Rating: 426.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1686.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.3
Clay: 6.2
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Jason Kubler
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vilius Gaubas (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Harold Mayot (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Blockx (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Yannick Hanfmann (0-2) hard Shanghai 76 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Coleman Wong (2-0) hard Shanghai 103 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Frances Tiafoe
vs
0
Jason Kubler
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Australian Open, Frances Tiafoe faces Jason Kubler on hard courts in Australia. Tiafoe is favored to win, with a probability of 64.95%, while Kubler has a 35.05% chance of success. The match is expected to be competitive, with an estimated total of 39.43 games played.

Match Analysis

Frances Tiafoe currently holds a rank of 30 and boasts a form index of 33.56, reflecting a recent dip in performance. His Elo rating stands at 1485.43, and he has no cumulative fatigue in the current tournament. Tiafoe's surface strength index of 7.89 shows solid capability on hard courts, with a mean serve index of 57.12 and a mean return index of 62.23, indicating he is a strong returner. Conversely, Jason Kubler, ranked 192, has demonstrated impressive form with a form index of 97.28. His Elo rating of 426.41 and significant fatigue of 522 minutes from previous matches could impact his performance. Kubler's surface strength index of 10.28, combined with a high mean serve index of 94.87 and a mean return index of 90.22, suggests he is capable of delivering powerful serves and returns. In their last three matches, Tiafoe has faced challenges, winning only one match against Aleksandar Vukic while losing to Daniil Medvedev and Yannick Hanfmann. On the other hand, Kubler is riding a wave of success, winning all three of his recent matches in straight sets, including victories over Vilius Gaubas, Harold Mayot, and Alexander Blockx.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.4 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Frances Tiafoe - Jason Kubler) -0.4 Most likely spread: -1 (Jason Kubler wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is projected to feature approximately 22.81 expected aces and 5.61 expected double faults. Given that hard courts provide a balanced surface for serving, these predictions reflect the players' capabilities. Tiafoe's mean serve index is significantly lower than Kubler's, which may influence the ace count in favor of Kubler, who is more adept at serving on this surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 22.8 Most likely: 22 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Frances Tiafoe's higher rank and strong return capabilities give him a slight edge in this matchup. However, the key factor to watch will be Kubler's ability to maintain his recent form and leverage his powerful serve, potentially impacting the dynamics of the match significantly.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel