Delray Beach
FL, U.S.A.
Hard
Atp 250
Round of 32
Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults
Rinky Hijikata
Rank: #113
41%
VS
Frances Tiafoe
Rank: #30
59%
Expected Total Games:
23.7
Predicted Winner:
Frances Tiafoe
Ranking Trends
Rinky Hijikata
- Current Rank: #113 (2026-02-09)
- 3 Months Ago: #127 (2025-11-17)
- 6 Months Ago: #96 (2025-08-18)
- 9 Months Ago: #79 (2025-05-19)
- 12 Months Ago: #78 (2025-02-17)
Frances Tiafoe
- Current Rank: #30 (2026-02-09)
- 3 Months Ago: #30 (2025-11-17)
- 6 Months Ago: #17 (2025-08-18)
- 9 Months Ago: #15 (2025-05-19)
- 12 Months Ago: #18 (2025-02-17)
Player Metrics
Rinky Hijikata
Form Index:
52.6
ELO Rating:
673.4
Glicko2 Rating:
1579.4
Current Fatigue (minutes):
271.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
6.3
Clay:
3.8
Grass:
4.5
Serve Rating:
70.3
Return Rating:
68.6
Frances Tiafoe
Form Index:
44.3
ELO Rating:
1420.1
Glicko2 Rating:
1755.2
Current Fatigue (minutes):
0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
10.0
Clay:
11.4
Grass:
12.6
Serve Rating:
96.7
Return Rating:
90.4
Recent Matches
Rinky Hijikata
- Last Match: vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) hard Delray Beach 97 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Michael Mmoh (2-1) hard Delray Beach 174 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Valentin Vacherot (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Adrian Mannarino (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Adelaide 83 min
Frances Tiafoe
- Last Match: vs Sebastian Korda (0-2) hard Dallas 68 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (2-1) hard Dallas 108 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Francisco Comesana (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Jason Kubler (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
0
Rinky Hijikata
vs
0
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0
Key Prediction Insights
This Round of 32 match at Delray Beach, FL is on outdoor hard courts at a 250-level event. Frances Tiafoe is the model favorite; the prediction gives Tiafoe a 59.15% chance to win versus a 40.85% chance for Rinky Hijikata, with an expected total of about 23.66 games in the match.
Match Analysis
On paper Tiafoe holds the clear class edge: he is ranked 30 versus Hijikata’s 113 and carries a much higher Elo (1,420.06 vs 673.39). Hijikata’s recent form index (52.59) is stronger than Tiafoe’s (44.26), but form alone is tempered by other metrics. Fatigue is a notable factor—Hijikata has logged 271 minutes in the current tournament while Tiafoe has 0 minutes on record here. Both players show modest surface strength indices on hard courts (Hijikata 6.31, Tiafoe 10.02).
Serve and return profiles point to a matchup tilt toward Tiafoe. His mean serve index (96.68) exceeds Hijikata’s (70.31) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (90.44) also leads Hijikata’s (68.59) by a substantial margin; both differences suggest Tiafoe will be advantaged on service games and in taking control of rallies. Over their last three matches Hijikata has two straight wins at Delray Beach (beating Svrcina and Mmoh) after a loss at the Australian Open, while Tiafoe has one recent win (Atmane) and defeats to Korda and de Minaur in his last three outings.
Total Games Predictions
Expected Total Games in Match
23.7
Most likely outcome: 23 games
Total Games Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total games outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total games ≤ X
Aces and Double Faults Predictions
The aces prediction for this hard-court match is 23.35 total; the predicted aces skew toward Tiafoe given his much higher serve index. The double faults prediction and expected double faults sit at 6.58 for the match. Hard courts are medium-paced with a consistent bounce, so the predicted aces reflect a balance between power serving and return quality, and Tiafoe’s superior serve rating will likely drive the higher ace share.
Expected Total Aces
23.4
Most likely: 24 aces
Expected Total Double Faults
6.6
Most likely: 6 double faults
Aces Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each ace count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of aces ≤ X
Double Faults Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each double fault count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of double faults ≤ X
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Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Final Prediction
Tiafoe’s higher Elo, superior serve and return indices, and freshness give him the edge in this matchup. Watch Tiafoe’s serve effectiveness and whether Hijikata’s accumulated court time limits his ability to extend rallies.
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