Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Terence Atmane

Rank: #66
31%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #30
69%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

Player Metrics

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 8.3
ELO Rating: 779.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1532.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.5
Clay: 5.2
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 79.6
Return Rating: 47.8

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 42.7
ELO Rating: 1487.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1758.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.3
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 12.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 92.5

Recent Matches

Terence Atmane

  • Last Match: vs Francesco Maestrelli (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Adelaide 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs James Duckworth (0-2) hard Brisbane 89 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-0) hard Brisbane 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Hugo Gaston (0-2) hard Metz 51 min

Frances Tiafoe

  • Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Francisco Comesana (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jason Kubler (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Brisbane 60 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Brisbane 60 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Terence Atmane
vs
0
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This is a Round of 32 match in Dallas, TX on indoor/outdoor hard courts at a 500-level event. Frances Tiafoe is the projected winner with a 69.23% probability versus Terence Atmane at 30.77%, and the model expects about 23.43 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Terence Atmane (rank 66) arrives with a low form index (8.25) and an Elo of 779.35; his surface strength index on hard is modest (4.55). He shows a solid mean serve index (79.65) but a relatively weak mean return index (47.76). Frances Tiafoe (rank 30) carries a higher form index (42.75) and a much stronger Elo (1487.23); his surface strength index is higher at 10.27. The difference in mean serve index between the two players is substantial (about 17 points), and the gap on mean return index is even wider (roughly 45 points), both of which favor Tiafoe. Neither player has accumulated fatigue in this event. Looking at recent results, Atmane has lost his last three matches, including a five-set loss at the Australian Open and straight-set defeats in Adelaide and Brisbane. Tiafoe’s last three show two wins followed by a defeat: he beat Francisco Comesana and Jason Kubler in earlier Australian Open rounds before losing to Alex de Minaur in his most recent outing. Those recent results and the comparative indices point to Tiafoe carrying clearer momentum and a stronger statistical profile into this matchup.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 16.46 total and the predicted double faults are 5.44 total. On a medium-paced hard court with a consistent bounce, predicted aces are moderate; the expected double faults remain relatively low. Given Tiafoe’s significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces count is likely to be driven more by him, while expected double faults reflect a modest baseline level from both players.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s higher rank, much stronger Elo, better recent form, and clear advantages in serve and return metrics give him the edge. The key factor to watch is whether Atmane’s serving efficiency can offset Tiafoe’s superior return ability.

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