Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Zachary Svajda vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Zachary Svajda

Rank: #110
45%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #30
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

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Ranking Trends

Zachary Svajda

  • Current #110 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #141 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #143 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #227 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #189 2025-02-17

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #30 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #30 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #17 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #15 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Zachary Svajda

Form Index: 56.7
ELO Rating: 544.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1553.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 233.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.6
Clay: 2.8
Grass: 3.6
Serve Rating: 53.5
Return Rating: 45.8

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 52.3
ELO Rating: 1420.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1757.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 73.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.1
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 12.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Zachary Svajda
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) hard Delray Beach 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (0-2) hard Dallas 68 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (2-1) hard Dallas 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Zachary Svajda
vs
0
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Delray Beach (FL), Round of 16 on hard courts at an ATP 250-level event, Frances Tiafoe is the model pick to advance. The prediction gives Tiafoe a 55.16% chance of winning versus 44.84% for Zachary Svajda, with a projected total of about 23.8 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Svajda (rank 110) arrives with a higher form index (56.73) than Tiafoe (52.27) and has posted three straight wins at this event, but his Elo (544.06) lags far behind Tiafoe’s (1420.83). Fatigue is a clear factor: Svajda has logged 233 minutes on court in this tournament compared with Tiafoe’s 73, which could blunt Svajda’s legs late in rallies. Both players show modest surface strength indices on hard courts, though Tiafoe’s 10.05 is notably higher than Svajda’s 3.58. There is a pronounced gap in serving and returning metrics that will shape tactics. Tiafoe’s mean serve index (96.72) exceeds Svajda’s (53.55) by over 40 points, and his mean return index (90.07) similarly outstrips Svajda’s 45.79—differences well above the 5-point threshold. That suggests Tiafoe will be more likely to dominate service holds and generate break opportunities; Svajda’s recent straight-set wins show confidence on hard courts, but sustaining that level against a superior server/returner who is also fresher will be the challenge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Zachary Svajda - Frances Tiafoe) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 10.28 total and the expected double faults are 3.75. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate compared with grass or clay; the surface tends to balance serving power and return play. Given Tiafoe’s significantly higher serve rating, predicted aces should be weighted toward him, while the expected double faults figure reflects a modest number of service errors overall.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s combination of much higher Elo and superior serve/return metrics, plus lower fatigue, gives him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch is how effectively Svajda can neutralize Tiafoe’s serve and convert the few return chances he earns.

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