Brussels Brussels Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Clement Chidekh vs Francisco Cerundolo Prediction

Clement Chidekh

Rank: #152
21%
VS

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #21
79%
Expected Total Games: 24.7
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Why the Model Favors Francisco Cerundolo

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +9.2 Francisco Cerundolo
Overall strength +7.9 Francisco Cerundolo
Surface fit +7.5 Francisco Cerundolo
Overall record & opposition quality +4.9 Francisco Cerundolo
Recent form +1.5 Francisco Cerundolo

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 79% for Francisco Cerundolo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Clement Chidekh

  • Current #152 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #208 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #179 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #189 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #240 2025-10-20

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #21 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #22 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #20 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #21 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Clement Chidekh

Form Index: 43.6
ELO Rating: 1546.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1642.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 359.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.3
Clay: 8.3
Grass: 2.4
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 93.0

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 43.9
ELO Rating: 1815.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1847.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 95.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.3
Clay: 27.6
Grass: 20.4
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 89.9

Recent Matches

Clement Chidekh
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (2-0) hard Brussels 107 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) hard Brussels 81 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Gauthier Onclin (2-0) hard Brussels 99 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly (2-0) hard Brussels 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Gea (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Clement Chidekh
vs
0
Francisco Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Francisco Cerundolo is the clear pick in this Brussels quarterfinal, with the forecast giving him 79% against Clement Chidekh’s 21%. The projected total is 24.7 games.

Match Analysis

The main separation is overall level and hard-court strength. Cerundolo is ranked 21st to Chidekh’s 152nd and has the stronger profile on this surface, giving him a substantial advantage in the matchup. Chidekh has won three straight in Brussels without dropping a set, most recently beating Jacob Fearnley. But he has spent 359 minutes on court in the tournament, compared with Cerundolo’s 95, a notable workload gap heading into the quarterfinal.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.7 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Clement Chidekh - Francisco Cerundolo) -3.5 Most likely spread: -4 (Francisco Cerundolo wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Chidekh is projected for 3.3 aces and 2.7 double faults, while Cerundolo is forecast at 4.7 aces and 2.6 double faults. Their serving strength is close, and the hard court’s even pace fits the projection of fewer than five aces apiece.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.0 Most likely: 6 aces Per player: Clement Chidekh 3.3 + Francisco Cerundolo 4.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Clement Chidekh 2.7 + Francisco Cerundolo 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Clement Chidekh

Expected 3.3 aces

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 4.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Clement Chidekh

Expected 2.7 double faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

29.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Clement Chidekh's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (51.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Chidekh’s stronger return profile gives him his best chance of an upset: if he can put consistent pressure on Cerundolo’s service games, his recent run could carry into this match. Cerundolo’s stronger hard-court record remains the more reliable advantage.

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