Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Francisco Cerundolo vs Damir Dzumhur: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #20
71%
VS

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #66
29%
Expected Total Games: 33.1
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #20 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #21 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #19 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #21 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #31 2025-01-13

Damir Dzumhur

  • Current #66 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #63 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #61 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #63 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #82 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 57.1
ELO Rating: 1961.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1661.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 13.3
Grass: 14.6
Serve Rating: 76.8
Return Rating: 91.9

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 52.9
ELO Rating: 816.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1565.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.9
Clay: 23.1
Grass: 19.9
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 97.2

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Damir Dzumhur
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Damir Dzumhur
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Francisco Cerundolo and Damir Dzumhur at the Australian Open promises to be an engaging encounter in the Round of 64 on hard courts. Given the data, Cerundolo is favored to win with a probability of 71.06%, while Dzumhur has a 28.94% chance. The predicted total number of games in this match is approximately 33.08.

Match Analysis

Francisco Cerundolo, currently ranked 20, has a form index of 57.10 and an Elo rating of 1961.36. His cumulative fatigue stands at 174 minutes, reflecting his recent performance. Notably, Cerundolo's mean serve index of 76.77 and mean return index of 91.91 indicate a solid all-around game on hard surfaces. In contrast, Damir Dzumhur, ranked 66, has a form index of 52.93 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 816.00. His surface strength index of 21.87 suggests he may struggle against more formidable opponents. The difference in mean serve index (Dzumhur's at 97.29) highlights his capability as a server, but the disparity in return index (Dzumhur's at 97.21) is minimal. Both players have had mixed results in their recent matches. Cerundolo secured a dominant victory against Zhizhen Zhang in his last match, winning all sets, while his earlier outings saw losses to Jaume Munar and Jannik Sinner. Dzumhur, meanwhile, comes off a strong performance against Liam Draxl but faced defeats against Alexander Shevchenko and Nuno Borges, indicating a turbulent form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 33.1 Most likely outcome: 33 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Damir Dzumhur) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 16.88 aces and 5.74 double faults. On hard courts, which offer a balanced surface for both servers and returners, the expected aces prediction aligns with the capabilities of both players, particularly given Dzumhur's higher mean serve index. However, the anticipated double faults prediction suggests that both players may struggle with consistency under pressure, particularly in longer rallies.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo's edge in overall performance metrics, combined with his recent form and superior return game, positions him favorably for this match. A key factor to watch will be how effectively he can handle Dzumhur's serve, as any lapses in returning could shift the momentum in favor of the Bosnian player.

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