Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Dellien: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #19
70%
VS

Hugo Dellien

Rank: #149
30%
Expected Total Games: 21.7
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 68.7
ELO Rating: 2070.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1669.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.4
Clay: 13.3
Grass: 14.6
Serve Rating: 74.5
Return Rating: 84.0

Hugo Dellien

Form Index: 42.4
ELO Rating: 457.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 217.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.4
Clay: 5.0
Grass: 3.8
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Damir Dzumhur (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Zhizhen Zhang (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (1-2) hard Adelaide 148 min

Hugo Dellien

  • Last Match: vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Thiago Monteiro (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 74 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Bernard Tomic (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Kamil Majchrzak (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Hugo Dellien
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Round of 16 in Buenos Aires, Argentina — a 250-level clay event — features Francisco Cerundolo against Hugo Dellien. The model projects Cerundolo to win (70.47% vs 29.53%) with a predicted total of about 21.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 19) with a strong form index (68.70) and an Elo of 2070.65. He shows excellent returning ability (mean return index 83.96) and a solid serve profile (serve index 74.54). He carries no cumulative fatigue from the tournament. Dellien is ranked 149 with a lower form index (42.41) and Elo 457.83; his surface strength index is modest compared with Cerundolo (5.02 vs 13.28). Dellien’s mean serve index (96.60) is markedly higher than Cerundolo’s — a difference greater than 5 points — and his mean return index (89.76) is also higher by more than 5 points. Looking at recent results, Cerundolo’s last three matches on hard court at the Australian Open show two straight wins followed by a loss to Alexander Zverev in the round of 16. Dellien has string of three straight wins at this event on clay, advancing through earlier rounds with relatively short matches and accumulating 217 minutes on court, indicating greater tournament fatigue compared with Cerundolo’s zero minutes. The contrast is clear: Cerundolo brings fresher legs and stronger overall ratings, while Dellien brings high serving numbers and momentum at this tournament.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.7 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match sits at a predicted aces total of about 10.3; expected double faults are 3.75. Clay generally reduces ace totals because slower speed and higher bounce give returners more time, while longer points can increase the chance of double faults late in rallies. Dellien’s significantly higher serve index suggests he will account for a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, but the surface will blunt that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s higher rank, superior Elo, better return metrics and freshness give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch is how Dellien’s big serve translates on slow clay and whether Cerundolo can break early to exploit Dellien’s accumulated minutes on court.

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