Bastad Sweden Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Francisco Cerundolo vs Mariano Navone Prediction

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #19
54%
VS

Mariano Navone

Rank: #91
46%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

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Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 11.5
ELO Rating: 1583.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1711.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.4
Clay: 13.5
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 89.2

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 56.5
ELO Rating: 1125.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1582.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 118.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.9
Clay: 10.5
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 90.3

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo

Mariano Navone

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
1
Mariano Navone
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Francisco Cerundolo and Mariano Navone in the Round of 16 at the Bastad tournament promises to be an engaging contest on clay. Both players will fight for a spot in the quarterfinals, with Cerundolo predicted to win with a probability of 53.54% compared to Navone's 46.46%. The match is expected to feature approximately 22 games.

Match Analysis

Francisco Cerundolo, currently ranked 19, boasts a form index of 11.46 and an Elo rating of 1583.6. His fatigue level is at 0 minutes, indicating he is fresh for this encounter. With a surface strength index of 13.51, he is well-suited to clay, and his mean serve index of 97.06 is significantly higher than Navone's 94.81, providing him with a notable advantage in serving. On the other hand, Mariano Navone, ranked 91, has a form index of 56.49 and an Elo rating of 1125.87, although he carries a cumulative fatigue of 118 minutes from the current tournament. His surface strength index stands at 10.53, which suggests he is less adept on clay compared to Cerundolo. In their recent performances, Cerundolo has struggled, losing all of his last three matches, including two at Wimbledon and one at Roland Garros. However, he faced tough opponents and played on grass, which may have influenced his results. In contrast, Navone's last match was a victory on clay against Tomas Barrios Vera, which could bolster his confidence. Despite this win, he also has a loss against Pedro Martinez at Wimbledon, where he failed to win a set, and a victory against Denis Shapovalov in a prior match.

Final Prediction

Cerundolo's higher ranking, better serve index, and freshness from not having played extensively in this tournament give him a crucial edge over Navone. The key factor to watch will be how well Cerundolo can leverage his serving prowess against Navone's return game, as this could significantly influence the match outcome.

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